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TP-47 vs GBK Kokkola Prediction— Finland - Kakkonen - Lohko C

Group C ·Saturday, July 4, 2026, 14:00

TP-47

PPG 1.20 · HOME

UPCOMING

GBK Kokkola

PPG 1.80 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.8 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 75.7% vs bookmaker-implied 78.1%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.8%0-11.7%0-21.9%0-31.4%0-4+1.2%1 1-02.1%1-14.6%1-25.0%1-33.6%1-4+3.2%2 2-02.9%2-16.2%2-26.7%2-34.8%2-4+4.3%3 3-02.5%3-15.5%3-25.9%3-34.3%3-4+3.8%4+ 4+-03.2%4+-16.9%4+-27.5%4+-35.4%4+-4+4.8%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 44.7% 43.5% 2.30 +2.8%

Draw 20.8% 27.0% 3.70 -13.8%

Away win 34.5% 41.7% 2.40 -17.2%

Over 2.5 75.7% 78.1% 1.28 -3.1%

Over 3.5 53.2% 59.9% 1.67 -11.2%

BTTS 69.1% 80.0% 1.25 -13.6%

Home O1.5 61.5% 63.7% 1.57 -3.4%

Away O1.5 52.6% 59.9% 1.67 -12.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 10 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 30%

O2.5 90%

BTTS 80%

Score Hit 30%

ROI 10.6%

Bet Hit 90%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 2 61%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.7 xG (away)2.2 BTTS prob69.1%

H 45% / xG 2.7-2.2 / O2.5 76% / BTTS 69%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–2 6.7%

#2 2–1 6.2%

#3 3–2 5.9%

#4 3–1 5.5%

#5 1–1 4.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

TP-472.7

GBK Kokkola2.2

COMBINED 4.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 75.7% · O3.5 PROB 53.2%

Form & verdict PPG

TP-47 · PPG 1.20

GBK KOKKOLA · PPG 1.80

⚠ MIXED SIGNALS - Model favors home but form suggests away strength | No clear value

70%

CAUTION_HOME

Caution: Away form (1.80) strong but model favors Home (P=44.7%)

Win probability 1X2

TP-47 (H) 44.7%

ODDS 2.30 · IMPLIED 43.5% EV +2.8%

Draw 20.8%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -13.8%

GBK Kokkola (A) 34.5%

ODDS 2.40 · IMPLIED 41.7% EV -17.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

TP-47 face GBK Kokkola in Finland - Kakkonen - Lohko C on Saturday, July 4, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives TP-47 a 45% chance, the draw 21% and GBK Kokkola 35%, so TP-47 are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.7 for TP-47 and 2.2 for GBK Kokkola (4.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-2. There is a 76% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 69% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, TP-47 are averaging 1.20 points per game versus 1.80 for GBK Kokkola. The best value bet our model finds is H/BTTS, with an expected value of +28.4%.

TP-47 vs GBK Kokkola Prediction— Finland - Kakkonen - Lohko C

Match Preview & Prediction

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