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Narpes Kraft vs Jaro II Prediction— Finland - Kakkonen - Lohko C

Group C ·Saturday, July 4, 2026, 12:00

Narpes Kraft

PPG 0.75 · HOME

8 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Jaro II

PPG 1.80 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 6.4 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 81.7% vs bookmaker-implied 87.7%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.2%0-10.5%0-20.7%0-30.7%0-4+1.0%1 1-00.6%1-11.7%1-22.4%1-32.3%1-4+3.4%2 2-01.0%2-13.0%2-24.3%2-34.1%2-4+6.0%3 3-01.2%3-13.5%3-25.0%3-34.8%3-4+7.0%4+ 4+-02.6%4+-17.6%4+-210.9%4+-310.5%4+-4+15.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.3% 38.2% 2.62 +37.0%

Draw 17.7% 26.7% 3.75 -20.2%

Away win 30.1% 48.8% 2.05 -38.3%

Over 2.5 81.7% 87.7% 1.14 -6.9%

Over 3.5 69.9% 73.5% 1.36 -4.9%

BTTS 74.2% 87.0% 1.15 -14.7%

Home O1.5 75.0% 69.4% 1.44 +8.0%

Away O1.5 72.5% 75.2% 1.33 -3.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 10 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 30%

O2.5 90%

BTTS 80%

Score Hit 30%

ROI 10.6%

Bet Hit 90%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 2 51%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 8-0

xG (home)3.5 xG (away)2.9 BTTS prob74.2%

H 52% / xG 3.5-2.9 / O2.5 82% / BTTS 74%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–2 5.0%

#2 3–3 4.8%

#3 4–2 4.4%

#4 2–2 4.3%

#5 4–3 4.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Narpes Kraft3.5

Jaro II2.9

COMBINED 6.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 81.7% · O3.5 PROB 69.9%

Form & verdict PPG

NARPES KRAFT · PPG 0.75

JARO II · PPG 1.80

⚠ MIXED SIGNALS - Model favors home but form suggests away strength

70%

CAUTION_HOME

Caution: Away form (1.80) strong but model favors Home (P=52.3%)

Win probability 1X2

Narpes Kraft (H) 52.3%

ODDS 2.62 · IMPLIED 38.2% EV +37.0%

Draw 17.7%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV -20.2%

Jaro II (A) 30.1%

ODDS 2.05 · IMPLIED 48.8% EV -38.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Narpes Kraft face Jaro II in Finland - Kakkonen - Lohko C on Saturday, July 4, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Narpes Kraft a 52% chance, the draw 18% and Jaro II 30%, so Narpes Kraft are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.5 for Narpes Kraft and 2.9 for Jaro II (6.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-2. There is a 82% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 74% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Narpes Kraft are averaging 0.75 points per game versus 1.80 for Jaro II. The best value bet our model finds is H/BTTS, with an expected value of +61.7%. This match finished 8-0.

Narpes Kraft vs Jaro II Prediction— Finland - Kakkonen - Lohko C

Match Preview & Prediction

More Finland - Kakkonen - Lohko C Predictions