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Hegelmann L. vs Kauno Zalgiris Prediction— Lithuania - A Lyga

Lithuania - A Lyga · Regular Season - 17 · Sunday, June 14, 2026, 11:15

Hegelmann L.

PPG 1.33 · HOME

UPCOMING

Kauno Zalgiris

PPG 2.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away

Model probability 55.6% vs bookmaker-implied 69.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.6%0-112.4%0-211.7%0-37.3%0-4+5.3%1 1-05.5%1-110.4%1-29.8%1-36.1%1-4+4.4%2 2-02.3%2-14.4%2-24.1%2-32.6%2-4+1.9%3 3-00.6%3-11.2%3-21.1%3-30.7%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-00.2%4+-10.3%4+-20.3%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelOddsEV

Home win 21.0% 6.00 +15.6%

Draw 23.4% 3.80 -6.7%

Away win 55.6% 1.44 -19.9%

Over 2.5 54.3% 1.75 -5.0%

Over 3.5 32.5% 2.75 -10.6%

BTTS 52.2% 1.85 -3.4%

Win probability 1X2

Hegelmann L. (H) 21.0%

ODDS 6.00 · IMPLIED 16.7% EV +15.6%

Draw 23.4%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -6.7%

Kauno Zalgiris (A) 55.6%

ODDS 1.44 · IMPLIED 69.4% EV -19.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 35 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 34%

O2.5 46%

BTTS 46%

Score Hit 34%

ROI -28.3%

Bet Hit 33%

Hunt pick CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 38%HUNT CONFIDENCE

xG (home)0.8 xG (away)1.9 BTTS prob52.2%

A 56% / xG 0.8-1.9 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.4%

#2 0–2 11.7%

#3 0–1 12.4%

#4 1–2 9.8%

#5 0–0 6.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Hegelmann L.0.8

Kauno Zalgiris1.9

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 54.3% · O3.5 PROB 32.5%

Form & verdict PPG

HEGELMANN L. · PPG 1.33

KAUNO ZALGIRIS · PPG 2.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum

63%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.00) vs Home AVERAGE (1.33)

Match Preview & Prediction

Hegelmann L. face Kauno Zalgiris in Lithuania - A Lyga on Sunday, June 14, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Hegelmann L. a 21% chance, the draw 23% and Kauno Zalgiris 56%, so Kauno Zalgiris are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.8 for Hegelmann L. and 1.9 for Kauno Zalgiris (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Hegelmann L. are averaging 1.33 points per game versus 2.00 for Kauno Zalgiris. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +48.5%.

Hegelmann L. vs Kauno Zalgiris Prediction— Lithuania - A Lyga

Match Preview & Prediction

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