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Hegelmann Litauen vs TransINVEST Vilnius Prediction— Lithuania - A Lyga

Regular Season - 25 ·Sunday, August 2, 2026, 15:45

Hegelmann Litauen

PPG 1.17 · HOME

UPCOMING

TransINVEST Vilnius

PPG 1.67 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 55.4% vs bookmaker-implied 61.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.4%0-19.8%0-27.5%0-33.9%0-4+2.1%1 1-07.7%1-111.9%1-29.2%1-34.7%1-4+2.5%2 2-04.7%2-17.2%2-25.6%2-32.9%2-4+1.5%3 3-01.9%3-12.9%3-22.3%3-31.2%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-00.8%4+-11.2%4+-20.9%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 32.3% 26.7% 3.75 +21.1%

Draw 25.2% 30.3% 3.30 -10.1%

Away win 42.5% 54.1% 1.85 -21.4%

Over 2.5 53.4% 54.1% 1.85 -1.2%

Over 3.5 32.2% 30.8% 3.25 +4.7%

BTTS 55.4% 61.7% 1.62 -10.3%

Home O1.5 33.1% 30.8% 3.25 +7.6%

Away O1.5 48.0% 54.6% 1.83 -12.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 47 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 38%

O2.5 38%

BTTS 49%

Score Hit 38%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 31%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob55.4%

A 42% / xG 1.2-1.5 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.9%

#2 1–2 9.2%

#3 0–0 6.4%

#4 0–1 9.8%

#5 0–2 7.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Hegelmann Litauen1.2

TransINVEST Vilnius1.5

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.4% · O3.5 PROB 32.2%

Form & verdict PPG

HEGELMANN LITAUEN · PPG 1.17

TRANSINVEST VILNIUS · PPG 1.67

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.32 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Hegelmann Litauen (H) 32.3%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV +21.1%

Draw 25.2%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -10.1%

TransINVEST Vilnius (A) 42.5%

ODDS 1.85 · IMPLIED 54.1% EV -21.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Hegelmann Litauen face TransINVEST Vilnius in Lithuania - A Lyga on Sunday, August 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Hegelmann Litauen a 32% chance, the draw 25% and TransINVEST Vilnius 43%, so TransINVEST Vilnius are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Hegelmann Litauen and 1.5 for TransINVEST Vilnius (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Hegelmann Litauen are averaging 1.17 points per game versus 1.67 for TransINVEST Vilnius. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +38.3%.

Hegelmann Litauen vs TransINVEST Vilnius Prediction— Lithuania - A Lyga

Match Preview & Prediction

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