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TransINVEST Vilnius vs Džiugas Telšiai Prediction— Lithuania - A Lyga

Regular Season - 24 ·Sunday, July 26, 2026, 15:45

TransINVEST Vilnius

PPG 1.50 · HOME

UPCOMING

Džiugas Telšiai

PPG 1.78 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 55.4% vs bookmaker-implied 59.9%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.2%0-19.5%0-25.5%0-32.1%0-4+0.8%1 1-011.1%1-112.8%1-27.3%1-32.8%1-4+1.0%2 2-07.5%2-18.6%2-24.9%2-31.9%2-4+0.7%3 3-03.3%3-13.8%3-22.2%3-30.8%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-01.5%4+-11.7%4+-21.0%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 44.0% 52.4% 1.91 -16.0%

Draw 26.2% 32.3% 3.10 -11.3%

Away win 29.8% 27.0% 3.70 +6.2%

Over 2.5 53.7% 55.6% 1.80 -3.3%

Over 3.5 32.8% 36.4% 2.75 -9.8%

BTTS 55.4% 59.9% 1.67 -7.5%

Home O1.5 38.5% 54.6% 1.83 -29.5%

Away O1.5 36.4% 33.3% 3.00 +9.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 45 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 36%

O2.5 40%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 38%

ROI -13.9%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 28%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob55.4%

H 44% / xG 1.3-1.2 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.8%

#2 0–0 8.2%

#3 1–0 11.1%

#4 2–1 8.6%

#5 0–1 9.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

TransINVEST Vilnius1.3

Džiugas Telšiai1.2

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.7% · O3.5 PROB 32.8%

Form & verdict PPG

TRANSINVEST VILNIUS · PPG 1.50

DŽIUGAS TELŠIAI · PPG 1.78

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.19, combined xG 2.50 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

TransINVEST Vilnius (H) 44.0%

ODDS 1.91 · IMPLIED 52.4% EV -16.0%

Draw 26.2%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -11.3%

Džiugas Telšiai (A) 29.8%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV +6.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

TransINVEST Vilnius face Džiugas Telšiai in Lithuania - A Lyga on Sunday, July 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives TransINVEST Vilnius a 44% chance, the draw 26% and Džiugas Telšiai 30%, so TransINVEST Vilnius are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for TransINVEST Vilnius and 1.2 for Džiugas Telšiai (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, TransINVEST Vilnius are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 1.78 for Džiugas Telšiai. The best value bet our model finds is A/BTTS, with an expected value of +13.9%.

TransINVEST Vilnius vs Džiugas Telšiai Prediction— Lithuania - A Lyga

Match Preview & Prediction

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