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Hegelmann L. vs Dziugas Telsiai Prediction— Lithuania - A Lyga

Regular Season - 20 ·Wednesday, June 17, 2026, 15:30

Hegelmann L.

PPG 1.30 · HOME

UPCOMING

Dziugas Telsiai

PPG 1.88 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 55.9% vs bookmaker-implied 58.8%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.1%0-112.2%0-29.1%0-34.5%0-4+2.4%1 1-08.2%1-112.3%1-29.2%1-34.6%1-4+2.4%2 2-04.2%2-16.2%2-24.7%2-32.3%2-4+1.2%3 3-01.4%3-12.1%3-21.6%3-30.8%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-00.4%4+-10.7%4+-20.5%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelOddsEV

Home win 29.0% 2.50 -16.5%

Draw 24.9% 3.00 -15.2%

Away win 46.2% 2.60 +20.1%

Over 2.5 54.0% 1.90 +2.6%

Over 3.5 32.6% 3.25 +5.9%

BTTS 55.9% 1.70 -5.0%

Win probability 1X2

Hegelmann L. (H) 29.0%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV -16.5%

Draw 24.9%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -15.2%

Dziugas Telsiai (A) 46.2%

ODDS 2.60 · IMPLIED 38.5% EV +20.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 38 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 37%

O2.5 45%

BTTS 45%

Score Hit 37%

ROI -28.3%

Bet Hit 33%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 31%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob55.9%

A 46% / xG 1.0-1.5 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.3%

#2 0–1 12.2%

#3 0–0 8.1%

#4 1–2 9.2%

#5 0–2 9.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Hegelmann L.1.0

Dziugas Telsiai1.5

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 54.0% · O3.5 PROB 32.6%

Form & verdict PPG

HEGELMANN L. · PPG 1.30

DZIUGAS TELSIAI · PPG 1.88

🎯 STRONG BET - Away/Overs value opportunity

95%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: GOOD form (1.88) vs Home AVERAGE (1.30)

Match Preview & Prediction

Hegelmann L. face Dziugas Telsiai in Lithuania - A Lyga on Wednesday, June 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Hegelmann L. a 29% chance, the draw 25% and Dziugas Telsiai 46%, so Dziugas Telsiai are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Hegelmann L. and 1.5 for Dziugas Telsiai (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Hegelmann L. are averaging 1.30 points per game versus 1.88 for Dziugas Telsiai. The best value bet our model finds is AwayO15, with an expected value of +20.9%.

Hegelmann L. vs Dziugas Telsiai Prediction— Lithuania - A Lyga

Match Preview & Prediction

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