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Panevezys vs Siauliai Prediction— Lithuania - A Lyga

Regular Season - 18 ·Saturday, June 20, 2026, 11:15

Panevezys

PPG 1.50 · HOME

3 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Siauliai

PPG 0.64 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.50) vs P(Home)=35.4%

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.4%0-112.0%0-26.3%0-32.2%0-4+0.7%1 1-012.8%1-113.4%1-27.1%1-32.5%1-4+0.8%2 2-07.2%2-17.5%2-24.0%2-31.4%2-4+0.5%3 3-02.7%3-12.8%3-21.5%3-30.5%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-01.0%4+-11.0%4+-20.5%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelOddsEV

Home win 35.4% — —

Draw 28.1% — —

Away win 36.5% — —

Over 2.5 49.5% — —

Over 3.5 28.2% — —

BTTS 52.6% — —

Win probability 1X2

Panevezys (H) 35.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 28.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Siauliai (A) 36.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

League track record ↗

Based on 43 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 37%

O2.5 42%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 40%

ROI -38.6%

Bet Hit 29%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 2 28%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-2

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob52.6%

D 28% / xG 1.1-1.1 / U2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.4%

#2 0–0 11.4%

#3 1–0 12.8%

#4 0–1 12.0%

#5 2–1 7.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Panevezys1.1

Siauliai1.1

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 49.5% · O3.5 PROB 28.2%

Form & verdict PPG

PANEVEZYS · PPG 1.50

SIAULIAI · PPG 0.64

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.50) vs P(Home)=35.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Panevezys face Siauliai in Lithuania - A Lyga on Saturday, June 20, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Panevezys a 35% chance, the draw 28% and Siauliai 37%, so Siauliai are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Panevezys and 1.1 for Siauliai (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Panevezys are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 0.64 for Siauliai. This match finished 3-2.

Panevezys vs Siauliai Prediction— Lithuania - A Lyga

Match Preview & Prediction

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