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Šiauliai vs Hegelmann Litauen Prediction— Lithuania - A Lyga

Regular Season - 13 ·Friday, July 24, 2026, 16:00

Šiauliai

PPG 1.11 · HOME

UPCOMING

Hegelmann Litauen

PPG 0.60 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

xG gap +0.24 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.3%0-18.6%0-25.1%0-32.0%0-4+0.8%1 1-010.4%1-112.4%1-27.4%1-32.9%1-4+1.1%2 2-07.5%2-18.9%2-25.3%2-32.1%2-4+0.8%3 3-03.6%3-14.2%3-22.5%3-31.0%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-01.8%4+-12.1%4+-21.2%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.4% — — —

Draw 25.5% — — —

Away win 28.2% — — —

Over 2.5 53.9% — — —

Over 3.5 32.8% — — —

BTTS 55.4% — — —

Home O1.5 46.3% — — —

Away O1.5 36.6% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 44 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 36%

O2.5 41%

BTTS 52%

Score Hit 39%

ROI -13.9%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 32%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob55.4%

H 46% / xG 1.4-1.2 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.4%

#2 0–0 7.3%

#3 2–1 8.9%

#4 1–0 10.4%

#5 2–0 7.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Šiauliai1.4

Hegelmann Litauen1.2

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.9% · O3.5 PROB 32.8%

Form & verdict PPG

ŠIAULIAI · PPG 1.11

HEGELMANN LITAUEN · PPG 0.60

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.24 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Šiauliai (H) 46.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 25.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Hegelmann Litauen (A) 28.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Šiauliai face Hegelmann Litauen in Lithuania - A Lyga on Friday, July 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Šiauliai a 46% chance, the draw 26% and Hegelmann Litauen 28%, so Šiauliai are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Šiauliai and 1.2 for Hegelmann Litauen (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Šiauliai are averaging 1.11 points per game versus 0.60 for Hegelmann Litauen.

Šiauliai vs Hegelmann Litauen Prediction— Lithuania - A Lyga

Match Preview & Prediction

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