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Hegelmann Litauen vs FK Zalgiris Vilnius Prediction— Lithuania - A Lyga

Regular Season - 24 ·Monday, July 27, 2026, 15:45

Hegelmann Litauen

PPG 1.27 · HOME

UPCOMING

FK Zalgiris Vilnius

PPG 1.45 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.3% vs bookmaker-implied 60.6%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.1%0-112.9%0-28.2%0-33.5%0-4+1.5%1 1-010.3%1-113.1%1-28.3%1-33.5%1-4+1.5%2 2-05.2%2-16.7%2-24.2%2-31.8%2-4+0.8%3 3-01.8%3-12.3%3-21.4%3-30.6%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-00.6%4+-10.7%4+-20.5%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 34.1% 27.8% 3.60 +22.8%

Draw 28.2% 29.9% 3.35 -3.3%

Away win 37.7% 56.5% 1.77 -33.3%

Over 2.5 50.0% 58.5% 1.71 -14.5%

Over 3.5 28.7% 36.4% 2.75 -12.6%

BTTS 52.3% 60.6% 1.65 -13.7%

Home O1.5 35.0% — — —

Away O1.5 37.3% 57.1% 1.75 -34.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 45 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 36%

O2.5 40%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 38%

ROI -13.9%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 2 26%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob52.3%

D 28% / xG 1.0-1.3 / U2.5 50% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.1%

#2 0–0 10.1%

#3 0–1 12.9%

#4 1–2 8.3%

#5 1–0 10.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Hegelmann Litauen1.0

FK Zalgiris Vilnius1.3

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.0% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

HEGELMANN LITAUEN · PPG 1.27

FK ZALGIRIS VILNIUS · PPG 1.45

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap -0.26, combined xG 2.29 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Hegelmann Litauen (H) 34.1%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV +22.8%

Draw 28.2%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV -3.3%

FK Zalgiris Vilnius (A) 37.7%

ODDS 1.77 · IMPLIED 56.5% EV -33.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Hegelmann Litauen face FK Zalgiris Vilnius in Lithuania - A Lyga on Monday, July 27, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Hegelmann Litauen a 34% chance, the draw 28% and FK Zalgiris Vilnius 38%, so FK Zalgiris Vilnius are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Hegelmann Litauen and 1.3 for FK Zalgiris Vilnius (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Hegelmann Litauen are averaging 1.27 points per game versus 1.45 for FK Zalgiris Vilnius.

Hegelmann Litauen vs FK Zalgiris Vilnius Prediction— Lithuania - A Lyga

Match Preview & Prediction

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