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Dziugas Telsiai vs Suduva Prediction— Lithuania - A Lyga

Regular Season - 18 ·Sunday, June 21, 2026, 11:15

Dziugas Telsiai

PPG 2.00 · HOME

UPCOMING

Suduva

PPG 0.88 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.6% vs bookmaker-implied 55.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.7%0-110.8%0-25.5%0-31.8%0-4+0.6%1 1-013.1%1-113.2%1-26.7%1-32.3%1-4+0.7%2 2-08.0%2-18.1%2-24.1%2-31.4%2-4+0.4%3 3-03.3%3-13.3%3-21.7%3-30.6%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-01.3%4+-11.3%4+-20.7%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelOddsEV

Home win 45.1% 3.55 +60.1%

Draw 27.4% 3.20 -7.4%

Away win 27.5% 1.95 -27.8%

Over 2.5 49.5% 2.05 +1.5%

Over 3.5 28.1% 3.70 +2.4%

BTTS 52.6% 1.80 -5.3%

Win probability 1X2

Dziugas Telsiai (H) 45.1%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV +60.1%

Draw 27.4%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -7.4%

Suduva (A) 27.5%

ODDS 1.95 · IMPLIED 51.3% EV -27.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 43 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 37%

O2.5 42%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 40%

ROI -38.6%

Bet Hit 29%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 25%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob52.6%

H 45% / xG 1.2-1.0 / U2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.2%

#2 0–0 10.7%

#3 1–0 13.1%

#4 0–1 10.8%

#5 2–1 8.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Dziugas Telsiai1.2

Suduva1.0

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 49.5% · O3.5 PROB 28.1%

Form & verdict PPG

DZIUGAS TELSIAI · PPG 2.00

SUDUVA · PPG 0.88

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - 🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

66%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.00) vs P(Home)=45.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Dziugas Telsiai face Suduva in Lithuania - A Lyga on Sunday, June 21, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Dziugas Telsiai a 45% chance, the draw 27% and Suduva 28%, so Dziugas Telsiai are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Dziugas Telsiai and 1.0 for Suduva (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Dziugas Telsiai are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 0.88 for Suduva. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +60.1%.

Dziugas Telsiai vs Suduva Prediction— Lithuania - A Lyga

Match Preview & Prediction

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