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Banga vs Zalgiris Prediction— Lithuania - A Lyga

Regular Season - 18 ·Saturday, June 20, 2026, 15:30

Banga

PPG 1.50 · HOME

3 – 0

FULL TIME

Zalgiris

PPG 1.50 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-014.8%0-112.9%0-25.6%0-31.6%0-4+0.4%1 1-015.4%1-113.4%1-25.8%1-31.7%1-4+0.4%2 2-08.0%2-17.0%2-23.0%2-30.9%2-4+0.2%3 3-02.8%3-12.4%3-21.0%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.9%4+-10.8%4+-20.3%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelOddsEV

Home win 35.6% 2.88 +2.5%

Draw 33.3% 3.20 +6.6%

Away win 31.0% 2.25 -30.3%

Over 2.5 37.4% 1.95 -27.1%

Over 3.5 19.1% 3.45 -20.5%

BTTS 48.5% 1.73 -16.1%

Win probability 1X2

Banga (H) 35.6%

ODDS 2.88 · IMPLIED 34.7% EV +2.5%

Draw 33.3%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV +6.6%

Zalgiris (A) 31.0%

ODDS 2.25 · IMPLIED 44.4% EV -30.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 43 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 37%

O2.5 42%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 40%

ROI -38.6%

Bet Hit 29%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 50%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-0

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob48.5%

D 33% / xG 1.0-0.9 / U2.5 37% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 14.8%

#2 1–1 13.4%

#3 1–0 15.4%

#4 0–1 12.9%

#5 2–0 8.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Banga1.0

Zalgiris0.9

COMBINED 1.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 37.4% · O3.5 PROB 19.1%

Form & verdict PPG

BANGA · PPG 1.50

ZALGIRIS · PPG 1.50

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.50), Away GOOD (1.50)

Match Preview & Prediction

Banga face Zalgiris in Lithuania - A Lyga on Saturday, June 20, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Banga a 36% chance, the draw 33% and Zalgiris 31%, so Banga are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Banga and 0.9 for Zalgiris (1.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 37% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Banga are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 1.50 for Zalgiris. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +6.6%. This match finished 3-0.

Banga vs Zalgiris Prediction— Lithuania - A Lyga

Match Preview & Prediction

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