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Norrby vs Oddevold Prediction— Sweden - Superettan

Regular Season - 12 ·Sunday, June 14, 2026, 11:00

Norrby

PPG 1.25 · HOME

0 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Oddevold

PPG 1.40 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.8 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 65.4% vs bookmaker-implied 57.1% — a clear edge.

+14.4% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.1%0-14.3%0-24.2%0-32.8%0-4+2.2%1 1-04.0%1-17.9%1-27.9%1-35.2%1-4+4.1%2 2-03.7%2-17.3%2-27.3%2-34.8%2-4+3.8%3 3-02.3%3-14.5%3-24.5%3-33.0%3-4+2.3%4+ 4+-01.6%4+-13.2%4+-23.2%4+-32.1%4+-4+1.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 38.2% 30.8% 3.25 +24.1%

Draw 22.0% 28.2% 3.55 -13.1%

Away win 39.8% 48.8% 2.05 -18.4%

Over 2.5 65.4% 57.1% 1.75 +14.4%

Over 3.5 42.8% 34.7% 2.88 +23.3%

BTTS 63.7% 63.7% 1.57 +0.0%

Home O1.5 59.1% 39.2% 2.55 +50.7%

Away O1.5 49.4% 52.4% 1.91 -5.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 66 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 49%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 39%

ROI -3.9%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 56%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-2

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)2.0 BTTS prob63.7%

A 40% / xG 1.9-2.0 / O2.5 65% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 7.9%

#2 1–2 7.9%

#3 2–1 7.3%

#4 2–2 7.3%

#5 1–3 5.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Norrby1.9

Oddevold2.0

COMBINED 3.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 65.4% · O3.5 PROB 42.8%

Form & verdict PPG

NORRBY · PPG 1.25

ODDEVOLD · PPG 1.40

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.25), Away AVERAGE (1.40)

Win probability 1X2

Norrby (H) 38.2%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV +24.1%

Draw 22.0%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV -13.1%

Oddevold (A) 39.8%

ODDS 2.05 · IMPLIED 48.8% EV -18.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Norrby face Oddevold in Sweden - Superettan on Sunday, June 14, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Norrby a 38% chance, the draw 22% and Oddevold 40%, so Oddevold are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Norrby and 2.0 for Oddevold (3.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 65% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Norrby are averaging 1.25 points per game versus 1.40 for Oddevold. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +50.7%. This match finished 0-2.

Norrby vs Oddevold Prediction— Sweden - Superettan

Match Preview & Prediction

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