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Wuxi Wugou vs Meizhou Hakka Prediction— China - League One

Regular Season - 11 ·Sunday, June 14, 2026, 11:00

Wuxi Wugou

PPG 1.60 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME O1.5

Meizhou Hakka

PPG 1.50 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 59.1% vs bookmaker-implied 55.6% — a real, if thin, edge.

+6.4% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.3%0-14.5%0-21.4%0-30.3%0-4+0.1%1 1-014.6%1-19.0%1-22.8%1-30.6%1-4+0.1%2 2-014.6%2-19.0%2-22.8%2-30.6%2-4+0.1%3 3-09.7%3-16.0%3-21.9%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-07.6%4+-14.7%4+-21.5%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 58.7% 61.7% 1.62 -4.9%

Draw 22.2% 29.0% 3.45 -14.1%

Away win 19.1% 19.2% 5.20 -0.4%

Over 2.5 50.7% 51.3% 1.95 -1.1%

Over 3.5 29.5% 29.9% 3.35 -0.7%

BTTS 47.8% 54.1% 1.85 -11.6%

Home O1.5 59.1% 55.6% 1.80 +6.4%

Away O1.5 18.0% 25.3% 3.95 -17.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 44 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 48%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 41%

Score Hit 52%

ROI -45.0%

Bet Hit 31%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 35%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob47.8%

H 59% / xG 2.0-0.6 / O2.5 51% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 14.6%

#2 1–0 14.6%

#3 1–1✓ 9.0%

#4 3–0 9.7%

#5 2–1 9.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Wuxi Wugou2.0

Meizhou Hakka0.6

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.7% · O3.5 PROB 29.5%

Form & verdict PPG

WUXI WUGOU · PPG 1.60

MEIZHOU HAKKA · PPG 1.50

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.60), Away GOOD (1.50)

Win probability 1X2

Wuxi Wugou (H) 58.7%

ODDS 1.62 · IMPLIED 61.7% EV -4.9%

Draw 22.2%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV -14.1%

Meizhou Hakka (A) 19.1%

ODDS 5.20 · IMPLIED 19.2% EV -0.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Wuxi Wugou face Meizhou Hakka in China - League One on Sunday, June 14, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Wuxi Wugou a 59% chance, the draw 22% and Meizhou Hakka 19%, so Wuxi Wugou are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Wuxi Wugou and 0.6 for Meizhou Hakka (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Wuxi Wugou are averaging 1.60 points per game versus 1.50 for Meizhou Hakka. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +11.9%. This match finished 1-1.

Wuxi Wugou vs Meizhou Hakka Prediction— China - League One

Match Preview & Prediction

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