Today / China - League One / Yanbian Longding vs Nanjing City

Yanbian Longding vs Nanjing City Prediction— China - League One

Regular Season - 17 ·Saturday, August 1, 2026, 10:00

Yanbian Longding

PPG 1.75 · HOME

UPCOMING

Nanjing City

PPG 0.62 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

xG gap +0.77 - moderate Home edge

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-013.6%0-18.4%0-22.6%0-30.5%0-4+0.1%1 1-018.8%1-111.5%1-23.5%1-30.7%1-4+0.1%2 2-013.0%2-18.0%2-22.5%2-30.5%2-4+0.1%3 3-06.0%3-13.7%3-21.1%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-02.8%4+-11.7%4+-20.5%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.2% — — —

Draw 25.2% — — —

Away win 21.6% — — —

Over 2.5 45.7% — — —

Over 3.5 26.0% — — —

BTTS 48.6% — — —

Home O1.5 39.4% — — —

Away O1.5 17.4% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 43 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 49%

O2.5 49%

BTTS 42%

Score Hit 51%

ROI -40.4%

Bet Hit 33%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 36%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob48.6%

H 53% / xG 1.4-0.6 / U2.5 46% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 18.8%

#2 0–0 13.6%

#3 1–1 11.5%

#4 2–0 13.0%

#5 2–1 8.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Yanbian Longding1.4

Nanjing City0.6

COMBINED 2.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 45.7% · O3.5 PROB 26.0%

Form & verdict PPG

YANBIAN LONGDING · PPG 1.75

NANJING CITY · PPG 0.62

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.77 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Yanbian Longding (H) 53.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 25.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Nanjing City (A) 21.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Yanbian Longding face Nanjing City in China - League One on Saturday, August 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Yanbian Longding a 53% chance, the draw 25% and Nanjing City 22%, so Yanbian Longding are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Yanbian Longding and 0.6 for Nanjing City (2.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Yanbian Longding are averaging 1.75 points per game versus 0.62 for Nanjing City.

Yanbian Longding vs Nanjing City Prediction— China - League One

Match Preview & Prediction

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