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Guangzhou E-Power vs Dongguan United Prediction— China - League One

Regular Season - 17 ·Saturday, August 1, 2026, 11:30

Guangzhou E-Power

PPG 2.38 · HOME

UPCOMING

Dongguan United

PPG 1.14 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

xG gap +1.78 for Home, form 2.38 vs 1.14 - Strong consensus

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.2%0-12.7%0-21.1%0-30.3%0-4+0.1%1 1-08.4%1-16.9%1-22.9%1-30.8%1-4+0.2%2 2-011.0%2-19.1%2-23.7%2-31.0%2-4+0.3%3 3-09.5%3-17.9%3-23.3%3-30.9%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-011.6%4+-19.6%4+-24.0%4+-31.1%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 64.9% — — —

Draw 18.2% — — —

Away win 16.9% — — —

Over 2.5 63.6% — — —

Over 3.5 40.6% — — —

BTTS 54.1% — — —

Home O1.5 64.0% — — —

Away O1.5 20.3% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 43 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 49%

O2.5 49%

BTTS 42%

Score Hit 51%

ROI -40.4%

Bet Hit 33%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 56%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.6 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob54.1%

H 65% / xG 2.6-0.8 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 54%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 11.0%

#2 3–0 9.5%

#3 2–1 9.1%

#4 1–1 6.9%

#5 3–1 7.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Guangzhou E-Power2.6

Dongguan United0.8

COMBINED 3.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.6% · O3.5 PROB 40.6%

Form & verdict PPG

GUANGZHOU E-POWER · PPG 2.38

DONGGUAN UNITED · PPG 1.14

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

66%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +1.78 for Home, form 2.38 vs 1.14 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Guangzhou E-Power (H) 64.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 18.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Dongguan United (A) 16.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Guangzhou E-Power face Dongguan United in China - League One on Saturday, August 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Guangzhou E-Power a 65% chance, the draw 18% and Dongguan United 17%, so Guangzhou E-Power are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.6 for Guangzhou E-Power and 0.8 for Dongguan United (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 54% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Guangzhou E-Power are averaging 2.38 points per game versus 1.14 for Dongguan United.

Guangzhou E-Power vs Dongguan United Prediction— China - League One

Match Preview & Prediction

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