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Shenzhen Juniors vs Wuxi Wugou Prediction— China - League One

Regular Season - 17 ·Sunday, August 2, 2026, 11:00

Shenzhen Juniors

PPG 1.71 · HOME

UPCOMING

Wuxi Wugou

PPG 1.56 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 62.1% vs bookmaker-implied 65.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.7%0-17.6%0-26.1%0-33.3%0-4+1.9%1 1-06.8%1-110.9%1-28.8%1-34.7%1-4+2.7%2 2-04.9%2-17.9%2-26.4%2-33.4%2-4+2.0%3 3-02.4%3-13.8%3-23.1%3-31.7%3-4+1.0%4+ 4+-01.2%4+-11.9%4+-21.5%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 35.8% 46.5% 2.15 -23.0%

Draw 23.8% 29.4% 3.40 -11.5%

Away win 40.4% 33.9% 2.95 +19.2%

Over 2.5 61.4% 59.9% 1.67 +2.5%

Over 3.5 39.3% 38.2% 2.62 +3.0%

BTTS 62.1% 65.4% 1.53 -5.0%

Home O1.5 45.4% 54.1% 1.85 -16.0%

Away O1.5 48.0% 43.5% 2.30 +10.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 43 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 49%

O2.5 49%

BTTS 42%

Score Hit 51%

ROI -40.4%

Bet Hit 33%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 48%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob62.1%

A 40% / xG 1.4-1.6 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.9%

#2 1–2 8.8%

#3 2–1 7.9%

#4 2–2 6.4%

#5 0–0 4.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Shenzhen Juniors1.4

Wuxi Wugou1.6

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.4% · O3.5 PROB 39.3%

Form & verdict PPG

SHENZHEN JUNIORS · PPG 1.71

WUXI WUGOU · PPG 1.56

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.17 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Shenzhen Juniors (H) 35.8%

ODDS 2.15 · IMPLIED 46.5% EV -23.0%

Draw 23.8%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -11.5%

Wuxi Wugou (A) 40.4%

ODDS 2.95 · IMPLIED 33.9% EV +19.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Shenzhen Juniors face Wuxi Wugou in China - League One on Sunday, August 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Shenzhen Juniors a 36% chance, the draw 24% and Wuxi Wugou 40%, so Wuxi Wugou are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Shenzhen Juniors and 1.6 for Wuxi Wugou (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Shenzhen Juniors are averaging 1.71 points per game versus 1.56 for Wuxi Wugou. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +12.7%.

Shenzhen Juniors vs Wuxi Wugou Prediction— China - League One

Match Preview & Prediction

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