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Ningbo Professional vs Guangxi Hengchen Prediction— China - League One

Regular Season - 17 ·Saturday, August 1, 2026, 11:00

Ningbo Professional

PPG 1.62 · HOME

UPCOMING

Guangxi Hengchen

PPG 1.14 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

xG gap -0.08 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.1%0-19.6%0-26.6%0-33.0%0-4+1.4%1 1-09.1%1-112.4%1-28.5%1-33.9%1-4+1.8%2 2-05.8%2-18.0%2-25.4%2-32.5%2-4+1.1%3 3-02.5%3-13.4%3-22.3%3-31.1%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-01.1%4+-11.5%4+-21.0%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 37.7% — — —

Draw 27.1% — — —

Away win 35.2% — — —

Over 2.5 53.4% — — —

Over 3.5 31.1% — — —

BTTS 55.4% — — —

Home O1.5 37.6% — — —

Away O1.5 43.7% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 43 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 49%

O2.5 49%

BTTS 42%

Score Hit 51%

ROI -40.4%

Bet Hit 33%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 27%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob55.4%

A 35% / xG 1.3-1.4 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.4%

#2 0–0 7.1%

#3 1–2 8.5%

#4 2–1 8.0%

#5 0–1 9.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Ningbo Professional1.3

Guangxi Hengchen1.4

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.4% · O3.5 PROB 31.1%

Form & verdict PPG

NINGBO PROFESSIONAL · PPG 1.62

GUANGXI HENGCHEN · PPG 1.14

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.08 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Ningbo Professional (H) 37.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 27.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Guangxi Hengchen (A) 35.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Ningbo Professional face Guangxi Hengchen in China - League One on Saturday, August 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Ningbo Professional a 38% chance, the draw 27% and Guangxi Hengchen 35%, so Ningbo Professional are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Ningbo Professional and 1.4 for Guangxi Hengchen (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Ningbo Professional are averaging 1.62 points per game versus 1.14 for Guangxi Hengchen.

Ningbo Professional vs Guangxi Hengchen Prediction— China - League One

Match Preview & Prediction

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