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Nantong Zhiyun vs Heilongjiang Lava Spring Prediction— China - League One

Regular Season - 17 ·Saturday, August 1, 2026, 11:30

Nantong Zhiyun

PPG 2.57 · HOME

UPCOMING

Heilongjiang Lava Spring

PPG 1.38 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

xG gap +0.70 - moderate Home edge

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.9%0-17.3%0-23.3%0-31.0%0-4+0.3%1 1-012.9%1-111.8%1-25.4%1-31.6%1-4+0.5%2 2-010.4%2-19.5%2-24.4%2-31.3%2-4+0.4%3 3-05.6%3-15.1%3-22.3%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-03.3%4+-13.0%4+-21.4%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 51.9% — — —

Draw 24.5% — — —

Away win 23.6% — — —

Over 2.5 53.4% — — —

Over 3.5 32.2% — — —

BTTS 55.4% — — —

Home O1.5 49.4% — — —

Away O1.5 25.2% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 43 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 49%

O2.5 49%

BTTS 42%

Score Hit 51%

ROI -40.4%

Bet Hit 33%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 34%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob55.4%

H 52% / xG 1.6-0.9 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.8%

#2 1–0 12.9%

#3 2–0 10.4%

#4 0–0 7.9%

#5 2–1 9.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Nantong Zhiyun1.6

Heilongjiang Lava Spring0.9

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.4% · O3.5 PROB 32.2%

Form & verdict PPG

NANTONG ZHIYUN · PPG 2.57

HEILONGJIANG LAVA SPRING · PPG 1.38

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.70 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Nantong Zhiyun (H) 51.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 24.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Heilongjiang Lava Spring (A) 23.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Nantong Zhiyun face Heilongjiang Lava Spring in China - League One on Saturday, August 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Nantong Zhiyun a 52% chance, the draw 25% and Heilongjiang Lava Spring 24%, so Nantong Zhiyun are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Nantong Zhiyun and 0.9 for Heilongjiang Lava Spring (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Nantong Zhiyun are averaging 2.57 points per game versus 1.38 for Heilongjiang Lava Spring.

Nantong Zhiyun vs Heilongjiang Lava Spring Prediction— China - League One

Match Preview & Prediction

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