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Dalian Huayi vs Suzhou Dongwu Prediction— China - League One

Regular Season - 16 ·Sunday, July 26, 2026, 11:00

Dalian Huayi

PPG 1.43 · HOME

UPCOMING

Suzhou Dongwu

PPG 0.71 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.5 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 53.9% vs bookmaker-implied 51.3% — a real, if thin, edge.

+5.1% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.8%0-17.2%0-23.3%0-31.0%0-4+0.3%1 1-012.8%1-111.7%1-25.4%1-31.6%1-4+0.5%2 2-010.4%2-19.5%2-24.4%2-31.3%2-4+0.4%3 3-05.7%3-15.2%3-22.4%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-03.3%4+-13.1%4+-21.4%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.7% 58.8% 1.70 -10.4%

Draw 24.3% 29.9% 3.35 -11.2%

Away win 23.0% 21.1% 4.75 +5.5%

Over 2.5 53.9% 51.3% 1.95 +5.1%

Over 3.5 32.8% 29.9% 3.35 +9.9%

BTTS 52.3% 54.6% 1.83 -4.3%

Home O1.5 53.5% 54.6% 1.83 -2.1%

Away O1.5 25.5% 27.0% 3.70 -3.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 35 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 43%

BTTS 43%

Score Hit 46%

ROI -33.6%

Bet Hit 39%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 33%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob52.3%

H 53% / xG 1.6-0.9 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.7%

#2 1–0 12.8%

#3 2–0 10.4%

#4 0–0 7.8%

#5 2–1 9.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Dalian Huayi1.6

Suzhou Dongwu0.9

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.9% · O3.5 PROB 32.8%

Form & verdict PPG

DALIAN HUAYI · PPG 1.43

SUZHOU DONGWU · PPG 0.71

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.72 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Dalian Huayi (H) 52.7%

ODDS 1.70 · IMPLIED 58.8% EV -10.4%

Draw 24.3%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV -11.2%

Suzhou Dongwu (A) 23.0%

ODDS 4.75 · IMPLIED 21.1% EV +5.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Dalian Huayi face Suzhou Dongwu in China - League One on Sunday, July 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Dalian Huayi a 53% chance, the draw 24% and Suzhou Dongwu 23%, so Dalian Huayi are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Dalian Huayi and 0.9 for Suzhou Dongwu (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Dalian Huayi are averaging 1.43 points per game versus 0.71 for Suzhou Dongwu. The best value bet our model finds is A/BTTS, with an expected value of +18.5%.

Dalian Huayi vs Suzhou Dongwu Prediction— China - League One

Match Preview & Prediction

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