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Changchun Yatai vs Hebei Kungfu Prediction— China - League One

Regular Season - 17 ·Sunday, August 2, 2026, 11:00

Changchun Yatai

PPG 1.50 · HOME

UPCOMING

Hebei Kungfu

PPG 0.29 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 50.8% vs bookmaker-implied 55.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.4%0-18.4%0-23.4%0-30.9%0-4+0.2%1 1-015.2%1-112.2%1-24.9%1-31.3%1-4+0.3%2 2-011.1%2-18.9%2-23.6%2-31.0%2-4+0.2%3 3-05.4%3-14.3%3-21.7%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-02.7%4+-12.2%4+-20.9%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 49.6% 57.8% 1.73 -14.2%

Draw 26.5% 29.4% 3.40 -5.9%

Away win 23.9% 23.1% 4.33 +2.1%

Over 2.5 50.4% 51.8% 1.93 -2.7%

Over 3.5 28.9% 30.3% 3.30 -2.8%

BTTS 50.8% 55.6% 1.80 -8.6%

Home O1.5 45.4% 54.6% 1.83 -16.9%

Away O1.5 20.3% 29.0% 3.45 -18.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 43 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 49%

O2.5 49%

BTTS 42%

Score Hit 51%

ROI -40.4%

Bet Hit 33%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 26%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob50.8%

H 50% / xG 1.5-0.8 / U2.5 50% / BTTS 51%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.2%

#2 1–0 15.2%

#3 0–0 10.4%

#4 2–0 11.1%

#5 2–1 8.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Changchun Yatai1.5

Hebei Kungfu0.8

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.4% · O3.5 PROB 28.9%

Form & verdict PPG

CHANGCHUN YATAI · PPG 1.50

HEBEI KUNGFU · PPG 0.29

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.65 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Changchun Yatai (H) 49.6%

ODDS 1.73 · IMPLIED 57.8% EV -14.2%

Draw 26.5%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -5.9%

Hebei Kungfu (A) 23.9%

ODDS 4.33 · IMPLIED 23.1% EV +2.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Changchun Yatai face Hebei Kungfu in China - League One on Sunday, August 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Changchun Yatai a 50% chance, the draw 27% and Hebei Kungfu 24%, so Changchun Yatai are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Changchun Yatai and 0.8 for Hebei Kungfu (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 51% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Changchun Yatai are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 0.29 for Hebei Kungfu. The best value bet our model finds is BTTS/O25, with an expected value of +5.8%.

Changchun Yatai vs Hebei Kungfu Prediction— China - League One

Match Preview & Prediction

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