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Yanbian Longding vs Meizhou Kejia Prediction— China - League One

Regular Season - 16 ·Sunday, July 26, 2026, 10:00

Yanbian Longding

PPG 1.57 · HOME

UPCOMING

Meizhou Kejia

PPG 1.43 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 59.6% vs bookmaker-implied 62.5%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.3%0-15.0%0-21.7%0-30.4%0-4+0.1%1 1-014.2%1-19.7%1-23.3%1-30.7%1-4+0.1%2 2-013.7%2-19.3%2-23.2%2-30.7%2-4+0.1%3 3-08.8%3-16.0%3-22.0%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-06.6%4+-14.5%4+-21.5%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 59.6% 62.5% 1.60 -4.6%

Draw 21.9% 27.8% 3.60 -12.7%

Away win 18.5% 19.2% 5.20 -2.3%

Over 2.5 53.9% 54.6% 1.83 -1.4%

Over 3.5 32.8% 32.3% 3.10 +1.7%

BTTS 50.9% 55.6% 1.80 -8.4%

Home O1.5 55.7% 58.8% 1.70 -5.3%

Away O1.5 20.1% 27.0% 3.70 -15.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 35 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 43%

BTTS 43%

Score Hit 46%

ROI -33.6%

Bet Hit 39%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 37%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob50.9%

H 60% / xG 1.9-0.7 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 51%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 13.7%

#2 1–0 14.2%

#3 1–1 9.7%

#4 2–1 9.3%

#5 3–0 8.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Yanbian Longding1.9

Meizhou Kejia0.7

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.9% · O3.5 PROB 32.8%

Form & verdict PPG

YANBIAN LONGDING · PPG 1.57

MEIZHOU KEJIA · PPG 1.43

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.25 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Yanbian Longding (H) 59.6%

ODDS 1.60 · IMPLIED 62.5% EV -4.6%

Draw 21.9%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -12.7%

Meizhou Kejia (A) 18.5%

ODDS 5.20 · IMPLIED 19.2% EV -2.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Yanbian Longding face Meizhou Kejia in China - League One on Sunday, July 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Yanbian Longding a 60% chance, the draw 22% and Meizhou Kejia 19%, so Yanbian Longding are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Yanbian Longding and 0.7 for Meizhou Kejia (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 51% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Yanbian Longding are averaging 1.57 points per game versus 1.43 for Meizhou Kejia. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +1.7%.

Yanbian Longding vs Meizhou Kejia Prediction— China - League One

Match Preview & Prediction

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