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Suzhou Dongwu vs Meizhou Kejia Prediction— China - League One

Regular Season - 17 ·Sunday, August 2, 2026, 11:00

Suzhou Dongwu

PPG 0.62 · HOME

UPCOMING

Meizhou Kejia

PPG 1.25 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.6% vs bookmaker-implied 57.8%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.5%0-111.4%0-26.2%0-32.2%0-4+0.8%1 1-012.3%1-113.3%1-27.2%1-32.6%1-4+0.9%2 2-07.2%2-17.8%2-24.2%2-31.5%2-4+0.5%3 3-02.8%3-13.0%3-21.6%3-30.6%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-01.1%4+-11.1%4+-20.6%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 41.6% 44.4% 2.25 -6.4%

Draw 27.9% 32.3% 3.10 -8.1%

Away win 30.5% 33.3% 3.00 -8.5%

Over 2.5 50.4% 50.0% 2.00 +0.8%

Over 3.5 28.9% 28.2% 3.55 +1.6%

BTTS 52.6% 57.8% 1.73 -9.0%

Home O1.5 32.6% 44.4% 2.25 -26.7%

Away O1.5 36.5% 36.4% 2.75 +0.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 43 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 49%

O2.5 49%

BTTS 42%

Score Hit 51%

ROI -40.4%

Bet Hit 33%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 22%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob52.6%

H 42% / xG 1.2-1.1 / U2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.3%

#2 0–0 10.5%

#3 1–0 12.3%

#4 0–1 11.4%

#5 2–1 7.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Suzhou Dongwu1.2

Meizhou Kejia1.1

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.4% · O3.5 PROB 28.9%

Form & verdict PPG

SUZHOU DONGWU · PPG 0.62

MEIZHOU KEJIA · PPG 1.25

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear value

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.09, combined xG 2.25 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Suzhou Dongwu (H) 41.6%

ODDS 2.25 · IMPLIED 44.4% EV -6.4%

Draw 27.9%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -8.1%

Meizhou Kejia (A) 30.5%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -8.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Suzhou Dongwu face Meizhou Kejia in China - League One on Sunday, August 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Suzhou Dongwu a 42% chance, the draw 28% and Meizhou Kejia 31%, so Suzhou Dongwu are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Suzhou Dongwu and 1.1 for Meizhou Kejia (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Suzhou Dongwu are averaging 0.62 points per game versus 1.25 for Meizhou Kejia. The best value bet our model finds is BTTS/O25, with an expected value of +13.0%.

Suzhou Dongwu vs Meizhou Kejia Prediction— China - League One

Match Preview & Prediction

More China - League One Predictions