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Shenzhen J. vs Guangxi H. Prediction— China - League One

China - League One · Regular Season - 11 · Sunday, June 14, 2026, 11:00

Shenzhen J.

PPG 2.25 · HOME

UPCOMING

Guangxi H.

PPG 0.80 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.6%0-19.7%0-24.1%0-31.1%0-4+0.3%1 1-015.3%1-112.8%1-25.4%1-31.5%1-4+0.4%2 2-010.0%2-18.4%2-23.5%2-31.0%2-4+0.2%3 3-04.4%3-13.7%3-21.5%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.9%4+-11.6%4+-20.7%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelOddsEV

Home win 49.3% 2.20 +8.5%

Draw 27.4% 3.10 -9.0%

Away win 23.3% 3.00 -18.1%

Over 2.5 48.3% 2.00 -3.4%

Over 3.5 28.1% 3.60 +0.7%

BTTS 48.1% 1.75 -15.8%

Win probability 1X2

Shenzhen J. (H) 49.3%

ODDS 2.20 · IMPLIED 45.5% EV +8.5%

Draw 27.4%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -9.0%

Guangxi H. (A) 23.3%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -18.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 14 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 36%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 64%

ROI -27.0%

Bet Hit 40%

Hunt pick CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 29%HUNT CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob48.1%

H 49% / xG 1.3-0.8 / U2.5 48% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.8%

#2 0–0 11.6%

#3 1–0 15.3%

#4 2–0 10.0%

#5 2–1 8.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Shenzhen J.1.3

Guangxi H.0.8

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 48.3% · O3.5 PROB 28.1%

Form & verdict PPG

SHENZHEN J. · PPG 2.25

GUANGXI H. · PPG 0.80

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - 🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

66%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.25) vs P(Home)=49.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Shenzhen J. face Guangxi H. in China - League One on Sunday, June 14, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Shenzhen J. a 49% chance, the draw 27% and Guangxi H. 23%, so Shenzhen J. are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Shenzhen J. and 0.8 for Guangxi H. (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 48% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Shenzhen J. are averaging 2.25 points per game versus 0.80 for Guangxi H.. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +8.5%.

Shenzhen J. vs Guangxi H. Prediction— China - League One

Match Preview & Prediction

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