Today / Australia - Tasmania NPL / Ulverstone vs Launceston

Ulverstone vs Launceston Prediction— Australia - Tasmania NPL

Regular Season - 11 ·Sunday, June 14, 2026, 04:30

Ulverstone

PPG 0.20 · HOME

1 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · AWAY O1.5

Launceston

PPG 2.25 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away Over 1.5

Model probability 100.0% vs bookmaker-implied 94.3% — a real, if thin, edge.

+6.0% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.1%0-10.3%0-21.1%0-32.3%0-4+28.5%1 1-00.1%1-10.4%1-21.2%1-32.6%1-4+32.2%2 2-00.0%2-10.2%2-20.7%2-31.5%2-4+18.2%3 3-00.0%3-10.1%3-20.3%3-30.6%3-4+6.9%4+ 4+-00.0%4+-10.0%4+-20.1%4+-30.2%4+-4+2.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 13.8% 5.6% 18.00 +89.0%

Draw 15.4% 11.9% 8.40 +17.6%

Away win 70.8% 95.2% 1.05 -25.7%

Over 2.5 82.6% 83.3% 1.20 -0.9%

Over 3.5 71.0% 72.5% 1.38 -2.0%

BTTS 63.7% 54.6% 1.83 +16.6%

Home O1.5 38.6% 20.4% 4.90 +89.1%

Away O1.5 100.0% 94.3% 1.06 +6.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 49 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 74%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 35%

ROI 12.9%

Bet Hit 82%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 4 62%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-3

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)6.4 BTTS prob63.7%

A 71% / xG 1.1-6.4 / O2.5 83% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–5 5.4%

#2 0–5 4.8%

#3 1–4 4.2%

#4 0–4 3.7%

#5 2–5 3.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Ulverstone1.1

Launceston6.4

COMBINED 7.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 82.6% · O3.5 PROB 71.0%

Form & verdict PPG

ULVERSTONE · PPG 0.20

LAUNCESTON · PPG 2.25

✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum

90%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.25) vs Home POOR (0.20)

Win probability 1X2

Ulverstone (H) 13.8%

ODDS 18.00 · IMPLIED 5.6% EV +89.0%

Draw 15.4%

ODDS 8.40 · IMPLIED 11.9% EV +17.6%

Launceston (A) 70.8%

ODDS 1.05 · IMPLIED 95.2% EV -25.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Ulverstone face Launceston in Australia - Tasmania NPL on Sunday, June 14, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Ulverstone a 14% chance, the draw 15% and Launceston 71%, so Launceston are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Ulverstone and 6.4 for Launceston (7.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-5. There is a 83% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Ulverstone are averaging 0.20 points per game versus 2.25 for Launceston. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +89.1%. This match finished 1-3.

Ulverstone vs Launceston Prediction— Australia - Tasmania NPL

Match Preview & Prediction

More Australia - Tasmania NPL Predictions