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Ulverstone vs Launceston Prediction— Australia - Tasmania NPL

Australia - Tasmania NPL · Regular Season - 11 · Sunday, June 14, 2026, 04:30

Ulverstone

PPG 0.20 · HOME

UPCOMING

Launceston

PPG 2.25 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 7.6 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 82.6% vs bookmaker-implied 83.3%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.1%0-10.3%0-21.1%0-32.3%0-4+28.5%1 1-00.1%1-10.4%1-21.2%1-32.6%1-4+32.2%2 2-00.0%2-10.2%2-20.7%2-31.5%2-4+18.2%3 3-00.0%3-10.1%3-20.3%3-30.6%3-4+6.9%4+ 4+-00.0%4+-10.0%4+-20.1%4+-30.2%4+-4+2.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelOddsEV

Home win 13.8% 18.00 +89.0%

Draw 15.4% 8.40 +17.6%

Away win 70.8% 1.05 -25.7%

Over 2.5 82.6% 1.20 -0.9%

Over 3.5 71.0% 1.38 -2.0%

BTTS 63.7% 1.83 +16.6%

Win probability 1X2

Ulverstone (H) 13.8%

ODDS 18.00 · IMPLIED 5.6% EV +89.0%

Draw 15.4%

ODDS 8.40 · IMPLIED 11.9% EV +17.6%

Launceston (A) 70.8%

ODDS 1.05 · IMPLIED 95.2% EV -25.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 18 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 83%

O2.5 78%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 33%

ROI 20.6%

Bet Hit 80%

Hunt pick CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 4 62%HUNT CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)6.4 BTTS prob63.7%

A 71% / xG 1.1-6.4 / O2.5 83% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–5 5.4%

#2 0–5 4.8%

#3 1–4 4.2%

#4 0–4 3.7%

#5 2–5 3.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Ulverstone1.1

Launceston6.4

COMBINED 7.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 82.6% · O3.5 PROB 71.0%

Form & verdict PPG

ULVERSTONE · PPG 0.20

LAUNCESTON · PPG 2.25

✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum

90%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.25) vs Home POOR (0.20)

Match Preview & Prediction

Ulverstone face Launceston in Australia - Tasmania NPL on Sunday, June 14, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Ulverstone a 14% chance, the draw 15% and Launceston 71%, so Launceston are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Ulverstone and 6.4 for Launceston (7.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-5. There is a 83% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Ulverstone are averaging 0.20 points per game versus 2.25 for Launceston. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +89.1%.

Ulverstone vs Launceston Prediction— Australia - Tasmania NPL

Match Preview & Prediction

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