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Oakland Roots vs Miami FC Prediction— USA - USL Championship

USA - USL Championship · Group Stage · Sunday, June 14, 2026, 02:00

Oakland Roots

PPG 1.67 · HOME

0 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Miami FC

PPG 0.86 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.8 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 60.6% vs bookmaker-implied 61.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.8%0-16.4%0-23.5%0-31.3%0-4+0.4%1 1-010.2%1-111.2%1-26.1%1-32.2%1-4+0.8%2 2-08.9%2-19.7%2-25.3%2-32.0%2-4+0.7%3 3-05.2%3-15.7%3-23.1%3-31.1%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-03.3%4+-13.7%4+-22.0%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ ACTUAL

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelOddsEV

Home win 50.6% 1.55 -21.6%

Draw 24.7% 4.00 -0.7%

Away win 24.7% 5.00 +14.1%

Over 2.5 60.6% 1.62 -1.8%

Over 3.5 37.1% 2.50 -7.2%

BTTS 58.3% 1.65 -3.8%

Win probability 1X2

Oakland Roots (H) 50.6%

ODDS 1.55 · IMPLIED 64.5% EV -21.6%

Draw 24.7%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -0.7%

Miami FC (A) 24.7%

ODDS 5.00 · IMPLIED 20.0% EV +14.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 40 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 48%

BTTS 48%

Score Hit 48%

ROI 3.4%

Bet Hit 50%

Hunt pick CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 49%HUNT CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob58.3%

H 51% / xG 1.7-1.1 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 58%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.2%

#2 2–1 9.7%

#3 2–0 8.9%

#4 1–0 10.2%

#5 0–0✓ 5.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Oakland Roots1.7

Miami FC1.1

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.6% · O3.5 PROB 37.1%

Form & verdict PPG

OAKLAND ROOTS · PPG 1.67

MIAMI FC · PPG 0.86

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.67) vs P(Home)=50.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Oakland Roots face Miami FC in USA - USL Championship on Sunday, June 14, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Oakland Roots a 51% chance, the draw 25% and Miami FC 25%, so Oakland Roots are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Oakland Roots and 1.1 for Miami FC (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 58% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Oakland Roots are averaging 1.67 points per game versus 0.86 for Miami FC. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +14.1%. This match finished 0-0.

Oakland Roots vs Miami FC Prediction— USA - USL Championship

Match Preview & Prediction

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