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Oakland Roots vs Pittsburgh Riverhounds Prediction— USA - USL Championship

Group Stage ·Sunday, August 2, 2026, 02:00

Oakland Roots

PPG 1.33 · HOME

UPCOMING

Pittsburgh Riverhounds

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.6% vs bookmaker-implied 58.8%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.0%0-18.6%0-24.6%0-31.6%0-4+0.6%1 1-011.7%1-112.5%1-26.7%1-32.4%1-4+0.8%2 2-08.5%2-19.1%2-24.8%2-31.7%2-4+0.6%3 3-04.1%3-14.4%3-22.4%3-30.8%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-02.1%4+-12.2%4+-21.2%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.5% 44.4% 2.25 +2.4%

Draw 26.5% 30.8% 3.25 -8.3%

Away win 28.0% 35.1% 2.85 -12.1%

Over 2.5 50.4% 51.8% 1.93 -2.7%

Over 3.5 28.9% 29.9% 3.35 -1.9%

BTTS 52.6% 58.8% 1.70 -10.6%

Home O1.5 45.4% 45.5% 2.20 -0.1%

Away O1.5 36.5% 38.5% 2.60 -5.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 89 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 46%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 49%

ROI -10.7%

Bet Hit 52%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 23%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob52.6%

H 46% / xG 1.5-1.1 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.5%

#2 0–0 8.0%

#3 1–0 11.7%

#4 2–1 9.1%

#5 2–0 8.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Oakland Roots1.5

Pittsburgh Riverhounds1.1

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.4% · O3.5 PROB 28.9%

Form & verdict PPG

OAKLAND ROOTS · PPG 1.33

PITTSBURGH RIVERHOUNDS · PPG 1.00

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.38 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Oakland Roots (H) 45.5%

ODDS 2.25 · IMPLIED 44.4% EV +2.4%

Draw 26.5%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -8.3%

Pittsburgh Riverhounds (A) 28.0%

ODDS 2.85 · IMPLIED 35.1% EV -12.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Oakland Roots face Pittsburgh Riverhounds in USA - USL Championship on Sunday, August 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Oakland Roots a 46% chance, the draw 27% and Pittsburgh Riverhounds 28%, so Oakland Roots are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Oakland Roots and 1.1 for Pittsburgh Riverhounds (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Oakland Roots are averaging 1.33 points per game versus 1.00 for Pittsburgh Riverhounds. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +9.6%.

Oakland Roots vs Pittsburgh Riverhounds Prediction— USA - USL Championship

Match Preview & Prediction

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