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New Mexico United vs Colorado Springs Prediction— USA - USL Championship

Group Stage ·Sunday, August 2, 2026, 01:30

New Mexico United

PPG 2.00 · HOME

UPCOMING

Colorado Springs

PPG 1.14 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 55.4% vs bookmaker-implied 62.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.3%0-16.2%0-23.6%0-31.4%0-4+0.5%1 1-09.4%1-111.0%1-26.4%1-32.5%1-4+0.9%2 2-08.4%2-19.7%2-25.6%2-32.2%2-4+0.8%3 3-04.9%3-15.7%3-23.3%3-31.3%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-03.3%4+-13.8%4+-22.2%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 50.2% 38.2% 2.62 +31.5%

Draw 24.9% 29.4% 3.40 -9.2%

Away win 24.9% 42.6% 2.35 -24.9%

Over 2.5 53.4% 56.5% 1.77 -5.5%

Over 3.5 32.2% 33.9% 2.95 -5.0%

BTTS 55.4% 62.5% 1.60 -11.4%

Home O1.5 49.4% 43.5% 2.30 +13.6%

Away O1.5 36.5% 47.6% 2.10 -23.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 89 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 46%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 49%

ROI -10.7%

Bet Hit 52%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 40%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob55.4%

H 50% / xG 1.8-1.2 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.0%

#2 2–1 9.7%

#3 2–0 8.4%

#4 1–0 9.4%

#5 0–0 5.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

New Mexico United1.8

Colorado Springs1.2

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.4% · O3.5 PROB 32.2%

Form & verdict PPG

NEW MEXICO UNITED · PPG 2.00

COLORADO SPRINGS · PPG 1.14

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.61 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

New Mexico United (H) 50.2%

ODDS 2.62 · IMPLIED 38.2% EV +31.5%

Draw 24.9%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -9.2%

Colorado Springs (A) 24.9%

ODDS 2.35 · IMPLIED 42.6% EV -24.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

New Mexico United face Colorado Springs in USA - USL Championship on Sunday, August 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives New Mexico United a 50% chance, the draw 25% and Colorado Springs 25%, so New Mexico United are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for New Mexico United and 1.2 for Colorado Springs (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, New Mexico United are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 1.14 for Colorado Springs. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +37.7%.

New Mexico United vs Colorado Springs Prediction— USA - USL Championship

Match Preview & Prediction

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