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Las Vegas Lights vs Phoenix Rising Prediction— USA - USL Championship

Group Stage ·Sunday, August 2, 2026, 02:30

Las Vegas Lights

PPG 1.57 · HOME

UPCOMING

Phoenix Rising

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 55.4% vs bookmaker-implied 64.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.8%0-16.8%0-23.9%0-31.5%0-4+0.6%1 1-09.8%1-111.4%1-26.6%1-32.6%1-4+1.0%2 2-08.2%2-19.6%2-25.6%2-32.2%2-4+0.8%3 3-04.6%3-15.4%3-23.1%3-31.2%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-02.8%4+-13.3%4+-21.9%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 49.4% 40.8% 2.45 +21.0%

Draw 24.6% 29.0% 3.45 -9.1%

Away win 25.9% 40.8% 2.45 -21.9%

Over 2.5 54.2% 58.8% 1.70 -7.9%

Over 3.5 32.5% 36.4% 2.75 -10.6%

BTTS 55.4% 64.5% 1.55 -14.1%

Home O1.5 49.4% 47.6% 2.10 +3.7%

Away O1.5 36.5% 47.6% 2.10 -23.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 89 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 46%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 49%

ROI -10.7%

Bet Hit 52%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 39%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob55.4%

H 49% / xG 1.7-1.2 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.4%

#2 2–1 9.6%

#3 2–0 8.2%

#4 1–0 9.8%

#5 0–0 5.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Las Vegas Lights1.7

Phoenix Rising1.2

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 54.2% · O3.5 PROB 32.5%

Form & verdict PPG

LAS VEGAS LIGHTS · PPG 1.57

PHOENIX RISING · PPG 1.00

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.52 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Las Vegas Lights (H) 49.4%

ODDS 2.45 · IMPLIED 40.8% EV +21.0%

Draw 24.6%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV -9.1%

Phoenix Rising (A) 25.9%

ODDS 2.45 · IMPLIED 40.8% EV -21.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Las Vegas Lights face Phoenix Rising in USA - USL Championship on Sunday, August 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Las Vegas Lights a 49% chance, the draw 25% and Phoenix Rising 26%, so Las Vegas Lights are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Las Vegas Lights and 1.2 for Phoenix Rising (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Las Vegas Lights are averaging 1.57 points per game versus 1.00 for Phoenix Rising. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +19.3%.

Las Vegas Lights vs Phoenix Rising Prediction— USA - USL Championship

Match Preview & Prediction

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