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Tampa Bay Rowdies vs Louisville City Prediction— USA - USL Championship

Group Stage ·Sunday, August 2, 2026, 00:00

Tampa Bay Rowdies

PPG 1.75 · HOME

UPCOMING

Louisville City

PPG 1.38 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.2 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 63.5% vs bookmaker-implied 60.6% — a real, if thin, edge.

+4.8% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.2%0-14.6%0-22.5%0-30.9%0-4+0.3%1 1-08.7%1-19.5%1-25.2%1-31.9%1-4+0.7%2 2-09.1%2-19.9%2-25.4%2-32.0%2-4+0.7%3 3-06.3%3-16.9%3-23.8%3-31.4%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-05.3%4+-15.8%4+-23.2%4+-31.2%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.7% 52.4% 1.91 +2.6%

Draw 22.3% 28.2% 3.55 -12.5%

Away win 24.0% 29.9% 3.35 -11.8%

Over 2.5 63.5% 60.6% 1.65 +4.8%

Over 3.5 39.8% 38.5% 2.60 +3.5%

BTTS 60.0% 65.4% 1.53 -8.2%

Home O1.5 60.1% 56.5% 1.77 +6.4%

Away O1.5 36.5% 40.8% 2.45 -10.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 89 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 46%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 49%

ROI -10.7%

Bet Hit 52%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 49%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob60.0%

H 54% / xG 2.1-1.1 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.5%

#2 2–1 9.9%

#3 2–0 9.1%

#4 1–0 8.7%

#5 3–1 6.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Tampa Bay Rowdies2.1

Louisville City1.1

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.5% · O3.5 PROB 39.8%

Form & verdict PPG

TAMPA BAY ROWDIES · PPG 1.75

LOUISVILLE CITY · PPG 1.38

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.99 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Tampa Bay Rowdies (H) 53.7%

ODDS 1.91 · IMPLIED 52.4% EV +2.6%

Draw 22.3%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV -12.5%

Louisville City (A) 24.0%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV -11.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Tampa Bay Rowdies face Louisville City in USA - USL Championship on Sunday, August 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Tampa Bay Rowdies a 54% chance, the draw 22% and Louisville City 24%, so Tampa Bay Rowdies are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for Tampa Bay Rowdies and 1.1 for Louisville City (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Tampa Bay Rowdies are averaging 1.75 points per game versus 1.38 for Louisville City. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +10.9%.

Tampa Bay Rowdies vs Louisville City Prediction— USA - USL Championship

Match Preview & Prediction

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