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Lexington vs Monterey Bay Prediction— USA - USL Championship

Group Stage ·Saturday, August 1, 2026, 23:00

Lexington

PPG 1.62 · HOME

UPCOMING

Monterey Bay

PPG 0.25 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.9 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 61.2% vs bookmaker-implied 58.8% — a real, if thin, edge.

+4.0% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.2%0-14.4%0-21.8%0-30.5%0-4+0.1%1 1-011.1%1-19.3%1-23.9%1-31.1%1-4+0.3%2 2-011.7%2-19.8%2-24.1%2-31.1%2-4+0.3%3 3-08.2%3-16.9%3-22.9%3-30.8%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-07.1%4+-15.9%4+-22.5%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 56.4% 64.5% 1.55 -12.6%

Draw 22.0% 26.7% 3.75 -10.5%

Away win 21.5% 19.0% 5.25 +7.7%

Over 2.5 61.2% 58.8% 1.70 +4.0%

Over 3.5 37.3% 36.4% 2.75 +2.6%

BTTS 52.6% 58.8% 1.70 -10.6%

Home O1.5 60.1% 63.7% 1.57 -5.6%

Away O1.5 20.3% 29.0% 3.45 -18.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 88 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 47%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 50%

ROI -10.7%

Bet Hit 52%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 50%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob52.6%

H 56% / xG 2.1-0.8 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 11.7%

#2 1–1 9.3%

#3 2–1 9.8%

#4 1–0 11.1%

#5 3–0 8.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Lexington2.1

Monterey Bay0.8

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.2% · O3.5 PROB 37.3%

Form & verdict PPG

LEXINGTON · PPG 1.62

MONTEREY BAY · PPG 0.25

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.28 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Lexington (H) 56.4%

ODDS 1.55 · IMPLIED 64.5% EV -12.6%

Draw 22.0%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV -10.5%

Monterey Bay (A) 21.5%

ODDS 5.25 · IMPLIED 19.0% EV +7.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Lexington face Monterey Bay in USA - USL Championship on Saturday, August 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Lexington a 56% chance, the draw 22% and Monterey Bay 22%, so Lexington are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for Lexington and 0.8 for Monterey Bay (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Lexington are averaging 1.62 points per game versus 0.25 for Monterey Bay. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +4.3%.

Lexington vs Monterey Bay Prediction— USA - USL Championship

Match Preview & Prediction

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