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Birmingham Legion vs Rhode Island Prediction— USA - USL Championship

Group Stage ·Sunday, August 2, 2026, 00:00

Birmingham Legion

PPG 0.89 · HOME

UPCOMING

Rhode Island

PPG 1.29 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.9% vs bookmaker-implied 60.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.6%0-111.2%0-27.3%0-33.2%0-4+1.4%1 1-09.9%1-112.9%1-28.4%1-33.6%1-4+1.6%2 2-05.7%2-17.4%2-24.8%2-32.1%2-4+0.9%3 3-02.2%3-12.8%3-21.8%3-30.8%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-00.8%4+-11.0%4+-20.7%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 31.9% 31.3% 3.20 +2.1%

Draw 26.9% 29.4% 3.40 -5.1%

Away win 41.1% 48.8% 2.05 -15.8%

Over 2.5 50.4% 55.6% 1.80 -9.3%

Over 3.5 28.9% 33.3% 3.00 -8.0%

BTTS 52.9% 60.6% 1.65 -12.7%

Home O1.5 32.6% 37.7% 2.65 -13.6%

Away O1.5 39.6% 51.3% 1.95 -22.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 89 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 46%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 49%

ROI -10.7%

Bet Hit 52%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 19%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob52.9%

A 41% / xG 1.1-1.3 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.9%

#2 0–0 8.6%

#3 0–1 11.2%

#4 1–2 8.4%

#5 1–0 9.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Birmingham Legion1.1

Rhode Island1.3

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.4% · O3.5 PROB 28.9%

Form & verdict PPG

BIRMINGHAM LEGION · PPG 0.89

RHODE ISLAND · PPG 1.29

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear value

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap -0.15, combined xG 2.45 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Birmingham Legion (H) 31.9%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV +2.1%

Draw 26.9%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -5.1%

Rhode Island (A) 41.1%

ODDS 2.05 · IMPLIED 48.8% EV -15.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Birmingham Legion face Rhode Island in USA - USL Championship on Sunday, August 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Birmingham Legion a 32% chance, the draw 27% and Rhode Island 41%, so Rhode Island are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Birmingham Legion and 1.3 for Rhode Island (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Birmingham Legion are averaging 0.89 points per game versus 1.29 for Rhode Island. The best value bet our model finds is H/BTTS, with an expected value of +15.2%.

Birmingham Legion vs Rhode Island Prediction— USA - USL Championship

Match Preview & Prediction

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