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Orange County SC vs El Paso Locomotive Prediction— USA - USL Championship

Group Stage ·Sunday, August 2, 2026, 02:00

Orange County SC

PPG 1.83 · HOME

UPCOMING

El Paso Locomotive

PPG 1.56 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 55.4% vs bookmaker-implied 61.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.1%0-16.8%0-23.8%0-31.4%0-4+0.5%1 1-010.3%1-111.4%1-26.4%1-32.4%1-4+0.8%2 2-08.6%2-19.6%2-25.4%2-32.0%2-4+0.7%3 3-04.8%3-15.4%3-23.0%3-31.1%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-03.0%4+-13.3%4+-21.8%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 50.6% 45.5% 2.20 +11.3%

Draw 25.1% 29.0% 3.45 -8.0%

Away win 24.3% 35.7% 2.80 -19.2%

Over 2.5 53.4% 56.5% 1.77 -5.5%

Over 3.5 32.2% 33.9% 2.95 -5.0%

BTTS 55.4% 61.7% 1.62 -10.3%

Home O1.5 49.4% 48.8% 2.05 +1.3%

Away O1.5 36.5% 41.7% 2.40 -12.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 89 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 46%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 49%

ROI -10.7%

Bet Hit 52%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 38%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob55.4%

H 51% / xG 1.7-1.1 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.4%

#2 2–1 9.6%

#3 2–0 8.6%

#4 1–0 10.3%

#5 0–0 6.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Orange County SC1.7

El Paso Locomotive1.1

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.4% · O3.5 PROB 32.2%

Form & verdict PPG

ORANGE COUNTY SC · PPG 1.83

EL PASO LOCOMOTIVE · PPG 1.56

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.57 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Orange County SC (H) 50.6%

ODDS 2.20 · IMPLIED 45.5% EV +11.3%

Draw 25.1%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV -8.0%

El Paso Locomotive (A) 24.3%

ODDS 2.80 · IMPLIED 35.7% EV -19.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Orange County SC face El Paso Locomotive in USA - USL Championship on Sunday, August 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Orange County SC a 51% chance, the draw 25% and El Paso Locomotive 24%, so Orange County SC are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Orange County SC and 1.1 for El Paso Locomotive (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Orange County SC are averaging 1.83 points per game versus 1.56 for El Paso Locomotive. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +3.4%.

Orange County SC vs El Paso Locomotive Prediction— USA - USL Championship

Match Preview & Prediction

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