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Loudoun United vs Hartford Athletic Prediction— USA - USL Championship

Group Stage ·Saturday, August 1, 2026, 23:00

Loudoun United

PPG 0.78 · HOME

UPCOMING

Hartford Athletic

PPG 1.33 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-014.4%0-114.0%0-26.8%0-32.2%0-4+0.7%1 1-013.9%1-113.5%1-26.6%1-32.1%1-4+0.6%2 2-06.7%2-16.5%2-23.2%2-31.0%2-4+0.3%3 3-02.2%3-12.1%3-21.0%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.6%4+-10.6%4+-20.3%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 33.9% 45.5% 2.20 -25.4%

Draw 30.3% 29.4% 3.40 +3.0%

Away win 35.7% 35.1% 2.85 +1.7%

Over 2.5 45.4% 55.6% 1.80 -18.3%

Over 3.5 26.0% 33.9% 2.95 -14.0%

BTTS 48.8% 62.5% 1.60 -21.9%

Home O1.5 32.6% 48.8% 2.05 -33.2%

Away O1.5 28.3% 41.7% 2.40 -19.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 88 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 47%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 50%

ROI -10.7%

Bet Hit 52%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 2 36%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob48.8%

D 30% / xG 1.0-1.0 / U2.5 45% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 14.4%

#2 1–1 13.5%

#3 0–1 14.0%

#4 1–0 13.9%

#5 0–2 6.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Loudoun United1.0

Hartford Athletic1.0

COMBINED 1.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 45.4% · O3.5 PROB 26.0%

Form & verdict PPG

LOUDOUN UNITED · PPG 0.78

HARTFORD ATHLETIC · PPG 1.33

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear value

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap -0.01, combined xG 1.94 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Loudoun United (H) 33.9%

ODDS 2.20 · IMPLIED 45.5% EV -25.4%

Draw 30.3%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV +3.0%

Hartford Athletic (A) 35.7%

ODDS 2.85 · IMPLIED 35.1% EV +1.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Loudoun United face Hartford Athletic in USA - USL Championship on Saturday, August 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Loudoun United a 34% chance, the draw 30% and Hartford Athletic 36%, so Hartford Athletic are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Loudoun United and 1.0 for Hartford Athletic (1.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 45% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Loudoun United are averaging 0.78 points per game versus 1.33 for Hartford Athletic.

Loudoun United vs Hartford Athletic Prediction— USA - USL Championship

Match Preview & Prediction

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