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Sacramento Republic vs Sporting JAX Prediction— USA - USL Championship

Group Stage ·Sunday, August 2, 2026, 03:00

Sacramento Republic

PPG 1.86 · HOME

UPCOMING

Sporting JAX

PPG 0.22 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 64.0% vs bookmaker-implied 73.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.7%0-13.0%0-21.2%0-30.3%0-4+0.1%1 1-09.2%1-17.4%1-23.0%1-30.8%1-4+0.2%2 2-011.4%2-19.3%2-23.7%2-31.0%2-4+0.2%3 3-09.5%3-17.7%3-23.1%3-30.8%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-010.7%4+-18.7%4+-23.5%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 62.0% 75.2% 1.33 -17.5%

Draw 20.3% 20.8% 4.80 -1.5%

Away win 17.7% 13.9% 7.20 +16.5%

Over 2.5 63.6% 65.4% 1.53 -2.7%

Over 3.5 40.2% 42.6% 2.35 -5.5%

BTTS 55.4% 56.5% 1.77 -1.9%

Home O1.5 64.0% 73.5% 1.36 -13.0%

Away O1.5 20.3% 25.0% 4.00 -11.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 89 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 46%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 49%

ROI -10.7%

Bet Hit 52%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 53%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.5 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob55.4%

H 62% / xG 2.5-0.8 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 11.4%

#2 3–0 9.5%

#3 2–1 9.3%

#4 1–1 7.4%

#5 1–0 9.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sacramento Republic2.5

Sporting JAX0.8

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.6% · O3.5 PROB 40.2%

Form & verdict PPG

SACRAMENTO REPUBLIC · PPG 1.86

SPORTING JAX · PPG 0.22

✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value

95%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +1.69 for Home, form 1.86 vs 0.22 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Sacramento Republic (H) 62.0%

ODDS 1.33 · IMPLIED 75.2% EV -17.5%

Draw 20.3%

ODDS 4.80 · IMPLIED 20.8% EV -1.5%

Sporting JAX (A) 17.7%

ODDS 7.20 · IMPLIED 13.9% EV +16.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Sacramento Republic face Sporting JAX in USA - USL Championship on Sunday, August 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sacramento Republic a 62% chance, the draw 20% and Sporting JAX 18%, so Sacramento Republic are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.5 for Sacramento Republic and 0.8 for Sporting JAX (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sacramento Republic are averaging 1.86 points per game versus 0.22 for Sporting JAX. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +21.9%.

Sacramento Republic vs Sporting JAX Prediction— USA - USL Championship

Match Preview & Prediction

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