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South East Utd vs Kingborough L. Prediction— Australia - Tasmania NPL

Australia - Tasmania NPL · Regular Season - 11 · Sunday, June 14, 2026, 02:00

South East Utd

PPG 0.75 · HOME

0 – 9

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Kingborough L.

PPG 1.80 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 6.0 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 81.1% vs bookmaker-implied 87.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.3%0-11.2%0-23.0%0-34.8%0-4+23.5%1 1-00.3%1-11.4%1-23.3%1-35.4%1-4+26.2%2 2-00.2%2-10.8%2-21.9%2-33.0%2-4+14.6%3 3-00.1%3-10.3%3-20.7%3-31.1%3-4+5.4%4+ 4+-00.0%4+-10.1%4+-20.2%4+-30.4%4+-4+1.9%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ ACTUAL

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelOddsEV

Home win 10.7% 16.00 +42.7%

Draw 16.0% 8.00 +16.8%

Away win 73.3% 1.07 -21.6%

Over 2.5 81.1% 1.14 -7.5%

Over 3.5 64.3% 1.32 -15.1%

BTTS 61.6% 1.70 +4.7%

Win probability 1X2

South East Utd (H) 10.7%

ODDS 16.00 · IMPLIED 6.3% EV +42.7%

Draw 16.0%

ODDS 8.00 · IMPLIED 12.5% EV +16.8%

Kingborough L. (A) 73.3%

ODDS 1.07 · IMPLIED 93.5% EV -21.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 18 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 83%

O2.5 78%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 33%

ROI 20.6%

Bet Hit 80%

Hunt pick CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 4 68%HUNT CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-9

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)4.9 BTTS prob61.6%

A 73% / xG 1.1-4.9 / O2.5 81% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–4 6.6%

#2 1–5 6.4%

#3 0–4 5.9%

#4 0–5 5.8%

#5 1–3 5.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

South East Utd1.1

Kingborough L.4.9

COMBINED 6.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 81.1% · O3.5 PROB 64.3%

Form & verdict PPG

SOUTH EAST UTD · PPG 0.75

KINGBOROUGH L. · PPG 1.80

✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum

90%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: GOOD form (1.80) vs Home POOR (0.75)

Match Preview & Prediction

South East Utd face Kingborough L. in Australia - Tasmania NPL on Sunday, June 14, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives South East Utd a 11% chance, the draw 16% and Kingborough L. 73%, so Kingborough L. are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for South East Utd and 4.9 for Kingborough L. (6.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-4. There is a 81% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, South East Utd are averaging 0.75 points per game versus 1.80 for Kingborough L.. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +64.9%. This match finished 0-9.

South East Utd vs Kingborough L. Prediction— Australia - Tasmania NPL

Match Preview & Prediction

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