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New Mexico vs Orange County Prediction— USA - USL Championship

Group Stage ·Sunday, June 14, 2026, 01:30

New Mexico

PPG 2.00 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

Orange County

PPG 1.60 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.7%0-112.8%0-27.0%0-32.6%0-4+0.9%1 1-012.3%1-113.5%1-27.4%1-32.7%1-4+0.9%2 2-06.4%2-17.1%2-23.9%2-31.4%2-4+0.5%3 3-02.3%3-12.5%3-21.4%3-30.5%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-00.7%4+-10.8%4+-20.4%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 35.2% 54.1% 1.85 -34.9%

Draw 29.5% 28.6% 3.50 +1.9%

Away win 35.3% 28.2% 3.55 +25.3%

Over 2.5 47.1% 56.5% 1.77 -16.6%

Over 3.5 28.1% 33.9% 2.95 -10.3%

BTTS 49.9% 60.6% 1.65 -17.7%

Home O1.5 36.8% 54.6% 1.83 -32.7%

Away O1.5 32.8% 35.7% 2.80 -8.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 89 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 46%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 49%

ROI -10.7%

Bet Hit 52%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 2 31%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob49.9%

D 30% / xG 1.1-1.1 / U2.5 47% / NoBTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 13.5%

#2 0–0 11.7%

#3 0–1 12.8%

#4 1–0 12.3%

#5 1–2 7.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

New Mexico1.1

Orange County1.1

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 47.1% · O3.5 PROB 28.1%

Form & verdict PPG

NEW MEXICO · PPG 2.00

ORANGE COUNTY · PPG 1.60

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.00) > Away GOOD (1.60)

Win probability 1X2

New Mexico (H) 35.2%

ODDS 1.85 · IMPLIED 54.1% EV -34.9%

Draw 29.5%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV +1.9%

Orange County (A) 35.3%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV +25.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

New Mexico face Orange County in USA - USL Championship on Sunday, June 14, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives New Mexico a 35% chance, the draw 30% and Orange County 35%, so Orange County are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for New Mexico and 1.1 for Orange County (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 47% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, New Mexico are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 1.60 for Orange County. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +25.3%. This match finished 1-1.

New Mexico vs Orange County Prediction— USA - USL Championship

Match Preview & Prediction

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