Today / USA - USL Championship / El Paso vs Phoenix Rising
El Paso vs Phoenix Rising Prediction— USA - USL Championship
Group Stage ·Sunday, June 14, 2026, 01:00
// Model verdict
Over 2.5
Combined xG of 3.3 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 64.2% vs bookmaker-implied 65.4%.
Poisson scoreline matrix
Markets vs the line
League track record ↗
Based on 89 resolved predictions
Correct score prediction
A 36% / xG 1.7-1.7 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 62%
Top 5 Poisson scorelines
Expected goals
COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 64.2% · O3.5 PROB 39.8%
Form & verdict
EL PASO · PPG 0.80
PHOENIX RISING · PPG 1.17
Home weakness: POOR (0.80) vs Away AVERAGE (1.17)
Win probability
Match Preview & Prediction
El Paso face Phoenix Rising in USA - USL Championship on Sunday, June 14, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives El Paso a 40% chance, the draw 24% and Phoenix Rising 36%, so El Paso are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for El Paso and 1.7 for Phoenix Rising (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, El Paso are averaging 0.80 points per game versus 1.17 for Phoenix Rising. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +23.1%. This match finished 1-1.