Today / USA - USL Championship / Colorado S. vs Sacramento R.

Colorado S. vs Sacramento R. Prediction— USA - USL Championship

Group Stage ·Sunday, June 14, 2026, 01:00

Colorado S.

PPG 2.00 · HOME

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Sacramento R.

PPG 0.60 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 55.7% vs bookmaker-implied 54.6% — a real, if thin, edge.

+1.9% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.0%0-17.0%0-24.0%0-31.6%0-4+0.6%1 1-09.9%1-111.5%1-26.7%1-32.6%1-4+1.0%2 2-08.2%2-19.5%2-25.5%2-32.1%2-4+0.8%3 3-04.5%3-15.2%3-23.1%3-31.2%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-02.7%4+-13.1%4+-21.8%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 48.9% 52.4% 1.91 -6.6%

Draw 24.1% 30.8% 3.25 -13.0%

Away win 27.1% 27.0% 3.70 +0.2%

Over 2.5 55.2% 48.8% 2.05 +13.2%

Over 3.5 36.2% 27.0% 3.70 +33.9%

BTTS 55.7% 54.6% 1.83 +1.9%

Home O1.5 54.8% 47.6% 2.10 +15.1%

Away O1.5 32.8% 30.3% 3.30 +8.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 89 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 46%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 49%

ROI -10.7%

Bet Hit 52%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 39%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob55.7%

H 49% / xG 1.7-1.2 / O2.5 55% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.5%

#2 2–1 9.5%

#3 2–0 8.2%

#4 1–0 9.9%

#5 0–0 6.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Colorado S.1.7

Sacramento R.1.2

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 55.2% · O3.5 PROB 36.2%

Form & verdict PPG

COLORADO S. · PPG 2.00

SACRAMENTO R. · PPG 0.60

✓ SOLID - Strong home form

80%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.00) vs P(Home)=48.9%

Win probability 1X2

Colorado S. (H) 48.9%

ODDS 1.91 · IMPLIED 52.4% EV -6.6%

Draw 24.1%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -13.0%

Sacramento R. (A) 27.1%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV +0.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Colorado S. face Sacramento R. in USA - USL Championship on Sunday, June 14, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Colorado S. a 49% chance, the draw 24% and Sacramento R. 27%, so Colorado S. are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Colorado S. and 1.2 for Sacramento R. (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 55% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Colorado S. are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 0.60 for Sacramento R.. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +33.9%. This match finished 0-1.

Colorado S. vs Sacramento R. Prediction— USA - USL Championship

Match Preview & Prediction

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