Today / Australia - Northern NSW NPL / Charlestown A. vs Lambton Jaffas

Charlestown A. vs Lambton Jaffas Prediction— Australia - Northern NSW NPL

Regular Season - 15 ·Sunday, June 14, 2026, 01:00

Charlestown A.

PPG 1.20 · HOME

1 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · AWAY O1.5

Lambton Jaffas

PPG 1.80 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away Over 1.5

Model probability 67.9% vs bookmaker-implied 62.9% — a real, if thin, edge.

+8.0% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.1%0-14.7%0-25.4%0-34.1%0-4+3.9%1 1-03.3%1-17.6%1-28.6%1-36.5%1-4+6.3%2 2-02.7%2-16.1%2-26.9%2-35.2%2-4+5.0%3 3-01.4%3-13.2%3-23.7%3-32.8%3-4+2.7%4+ 4+-00.8%4+-11.8%4+-22.1%4+-31.6%4+-4+1.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 27.3% 30.3% 3.30 -5.9%

Draw 21.2% 27.8% 3.60 -14.2%

Away win 51.6% 54.1% 1.85 -4.5%

Over 2.5 65.8% 66.7% 1.50 -1.3%

Over 3.5 45.2% 46.9% 2.13 -3.7%

BTTS 63.7% 71.4% 1.40 -10.8%

Home O1.5 51.7% 44.1% 2.27 +17.4%

Away O1.5 67.9% 62.9% 1.59 +8.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 49 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 43%

O2.5 76%

BTTS 78%

Score Hit 43%

ROI 18.7%

Bet Hit 79%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 65%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)2.3 BTTS prob63.7%

A 52% / xG 1.6-2.3 / O2.5 66% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 7.6%

#2 1–2 8.6%

#3 2–2 6.9%

#4 1–3✓ 6.5%

#5 2–1 6.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Charlestown A.1.6

Lambton Jaffas2.3

COMBINED 3.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 65.8% · O3.5 PROB 45.2%

Form & verdict PPG

CHARLESTOWN A. · PPG 1.20

LAMBTON JAFFAS · PPG 1.80

✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value

90%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: GOOD form (1.80) vs Home AVERAGE (1.20)

Win probability 1X2

Charlestown A. (H) 27.3%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -5.9%

Draw 21.2%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -14.2%

Lambton Jaffas (A) 51.6%

ODDS 1.85 · IMPLIED 54.1% EV -4.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Charlestown A. face Lambton Jaffas in Australia - Northern NSW NPL on Sunday, June 14, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Charlestown A. a 27% chance, the draw 21% and Lambton Jaffas 52%, so Lambton Jaffas are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Charlestown A. and 2.3 for Lambton Jaffas (3.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 66% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Charlestown A. are averaging 1.20 points per game versus 1.80 for Lambton Jaffas. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +17.4%. This match finished 1-3.

Charlestown A. vs Lambton Jaffas Prediction— Australia - Northern NSW NPL

Match Preview & Prediction

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