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Al Wahda vs Al Adalha Prediction— Saudi-Arabia - Pro League

Tuesday, April 14, 2026, 18:00

Al Wahda

PPG 1.43 · HOME

UPCOMING

Al Adalha

PPG 0.64 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.9 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 75.0% vs bookmaker-implied 69.0% — a real, if thin, edge.

+8.8% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.0%0-12.7%0-21.9%0-30.9%0-4+0.4%1 1-05.1%1-16.9%1-24.8%1-32.2%1-4+1.0%2 2-06.4%2-18.8%2-26.1%2-32.8%2-4+1.3%3 3-05.5%3-17.5%3-25.2%3-32.4%3-4+1.1%4+ 4+-06.4%4+-18.8%4+-26.0%4+-32.8%4+-4+1.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 62.9% 64.5% 1.55 -2.5%

Draw 17.9% 22.7% 4.40 -21.2%

Away win 19.1% 19.6% 5.10 -2.6%

Over 2.5 75.0% 69.0% 1.45 +8.8%

Over 3.5 55.1% 46.5% 2.15 +18.5%

BTTS 68.8% 66.7% 1.50 +3.2%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 54 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 59%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 50%

ROI -6.2%

Bet Hit 64%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 76%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.5 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob68.8%

H 63% / xG 2.5-1.4 / O2.5 75% / BTTS 69%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 8.8%

#2 3–1 7.5%

#3 1–1 6.9%

#4 2–0 6.4%

#5 2–2 6.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Al Wahda2.5

Al Adalha1.4

COMBINED 3.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 75.0% · O3.5 PROB 55.1%

Form & verdict PPG

AL WAHDA · PPG 1.43

AL ADALHA · PPG 0.64

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.43) > Away POOR (0.64)

Win probability 1X2

Al Wahda (H) 62.9%

ODDS 1.55 · IMPLIED 64.5% EV -2.5%

Draw 17.9%

ODDS 4.40 · IMPLIED 22.7% EV -21.2%

Al Adalha (A) 19.1%

ODDS 5.10 · IMPLIED 19.6% EV -2.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Al Wahda face Al Adalha in Saudi-Arabia - Pro League on Tuesday, April 14, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Al Wahda a 63% chance, the draw 18% and Al Adalha 19%, so Al Wahda are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.5 for Al Wahda and 1.4 for Al Adalha (3.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 75% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 69% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Al Wahda are averaging 1.43 points per game versus 0.64 for Al Adalha. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +18.5%.

Al Wahda vs Al Adalha Prediction— Saudi-Arabia - Pro League

Match Preview & Prediction

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