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Koper vs Maribor Prediction— Slovenia - 1. SNL

Regular Season - 30 ·Tuesday, April 14, 2026, 16:00

Koper

PPG 2.29 · HOME

3 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Maribor

PPG 1.62 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.5% vs bookmaker-implied 67.6%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.0%0-17.7%0-24.2%0-31.5%0-4+0.5%1 1-011.0%1-112.0%1-26.6%1-32.4%1-4+0.8%2 2-08.5%2-19.4%2-25.1%2-31.9%2-4+0.7%3 3-04.4%3-14.9%3-22.7%3-31.0%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-02.4%4+-12.7%4+-21.5%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 48.0% 39.1% 2.56 +22.9%

Draw 25.3% 28.6% 3.50 -11.5%

Away win 26.8% 41.3% 2.42 -35.1%

Over 2.5 49.5% 62.5% 1.60 -20.8%

Over 3.5 27.6% 40.0% 2.50 -31.0%

BTTS 52.5% 67.6% 1.48 -22.3%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 27 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 74%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 48%

Score Hit 37%

ROI 30.6%

Bet Hit 82%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 27%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-1

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob52.5%

H 48% / xG 1.6-1.1 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.0%

#2 1–0 11.0%

#3 2–1 9.4%

#4 2–0 8.5%

#5 0–1 7.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Koper1.6

Maribor1.1

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 49.5% · O3.5 PROB 27.6%

Form & verdict PPG

KOPER · PPG 2.29

MARIBOR · PPG 1.62

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.29) > Away GOOD (1.62)

Win probability 1X2

Koper (H) 48.0%

ODDS 2.56 · IMPLIED 39.1% EV +22.9%

Draw 25.3%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -11.5%

Maribor (A) 26.8%

ODDS 2.42 · IMPLIED 41.3% EV -35.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Koper face Maribor in Slovenia - 1. SNL on Tuesday, April 14, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Koper a 48% chance, the draw 25% and Maribor 27%, so Koper are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Koper and 1.1 for Maribor (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Koper are averaging 2.29 points per game versus 1.62 for Maribor. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +22.9%. This match finished 3-1.

Koper vs Maribor Prediction— Slovenia - 1. SNL

Match Preview & Prediction

More Slovenia - 1. SNL Predictions