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Mura vs Maribor Prediction— Slovenia - 1. SNL

Regular Season - 35 ·Sunday, May 17, 2026, 13:00

Mura

PPG 1.25 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Maribor

PPG 1.31 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 51.9% vs bookmaker-implied 62.5%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.9%0-111.7%0-28.6%0-34.2%0-4+2.2%1 1-08.4%1-112.4%1-29.1%1-34.5%1-4+2.3%2 2-04.4%2-16.6%2-24.8%2-32.4%2-4+1.2%3 3-01.6%3-12.3%3-21.7%3-30.8%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-00.5%4+-10.8%4+-20.6%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 28.5% 28.2% 3.55 +0.7%

Draw 27.9% 27.8% 3.60 +0.3%

Away win 43.5% 52.9% 1.89 -17.8%

Over 2.5 47.6% 58.8% 1.70 -19.1%

Over 3.5 25.0% 36.4% 2.75 -18.8%

BTTS 51.9% 62.5% 1.60 -17.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 27 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 74%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 48%

Score Hit 37%

ROI 30.6%

Bet Hit 82%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 21%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob51.9%

A 44% / xG 1.1-1.5 / O2.5 48% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.4%

#2 0–1 11.7%

#3 0–0 7.9%

#4 1–2 9.1%

#5 0–2 8.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Mura1.1

Maribor1.5

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 47.6% · O3.5 PROB 25.0%

Form & verdict PPG

MURA · PPG 1.25

MARIBOR · PPG 1.31

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.25), Away AVERAGE (1.31)

Win probability 1X2

Mura (H) 28.5%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV +0.7%

Draw 27.9%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV +0.3%

Maribor (A) 43.5%

ODDS 1.89 · IMPLIED 52.9% EV -17.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Mura face Maribor in Slovenia - 1. SNL on Sunday, May 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Mura a 28% chance, the draw 28% and Maribor 44%, so Maribor are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Mura and 1.5 for Maribor (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 48% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Mura are averaging 1.25 points per game versus 1.31 for Maribor. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +0.7%. This match finished 2-1.

Mura vs Maribor Prediction— Slovenia - 1. SNL

Match Preview & Prediction

More Slovenia - 1. SNL Predictions