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Aluminij vs Primorje Prediction— Slovenia - 1. SNL

Regular Season - 35 ·Saturday, May 16, 2026, 18:15

Aluminij

PPG 1.13 · HOME

0 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Primorje

PPG 0.13 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.2 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 61.4% vs bookmaker-implied 63.7%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.2%0-14.6%0-22.5%0-30.9%0-4+0.3%1 1-08.7%1-19.6%1-25.2%1-31.9%1-4+0.7%2 2-09.0%2-19.9%2-25.4%2-32.0%2-4+0.7%3 3-06.2%3-16.8%3-23.7%3-31.4%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-05.2%4+-15.7%4+-23.1%4+-31.1%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.2% 48.5% 2.06 +9.6%

Draw 24.7% 27.8% 3.60 -6.7%

Away win 22.1% 32.8% 3.05 -19.6%

Over 2.5 61.4% 63.7% 1.57 -3.6%

Over 3.5 39.0% 41.7% 2.40 -6.4%

BTTS 59.7% 69.0% 1.45 -13.4%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 27 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 74%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 48%

Score Hit 37%

ROI 30.6%

Bet Hit 82%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 46%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob59.7%

H 53% / xG 2.1-1.1 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.6%

#2 2–1 9.9%

#3 2–0 9.0%

#4 1–0 8.7%

#5 3–1 6.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Aluminij2.1

Primorje1.1

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.4% · O3.5 PROB 39.0%

Form & verdict PPG

ALUMINIJ · PPG 1.13

PRIMORJE · PPG 0.13

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - 🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

66%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: AVERAGE form (1.13) vs P(Home)=53.2%

Win probability 1X2

Aluminij (H) 53.2%

ODDS 2.06 · IMPLIED 48.5% EV +9.6%

Draw 24.7%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -6.7%

Primorje (A) 22.1%

ODDS 3.05 · IMPLIED 32.8% EV -19.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Aluminij face Primorje in Slovenia - 1. SNL on Saturday, May 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Aluminij a 53% chance, the draw 25% and Primorje 22%, so Aluminij are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for Aluminij and 1.1 for Primorje (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Aluminij are averaging 1.13 points per game versus 0.13 for Primorje. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +9.6%. This match finished 0-0.

Aluminij vs Primorje Prediction— Slovenia - 1. SNL

Match Preview & Prediction

More Slovenia - 1. SNL Predictions