Aluminij vs Primorje Prediction & Tips

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Slovenia - 1. SNL Regular Season - 35 Sportni park Aluminij· Kidricevo Saturday, May 16, 2026 18:15

Aluminij PPG 1.13

0-0 MISS

Primorje PPG 0.13

Home· +9.6% ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - 🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

66% confidence

Match Result (1X2)

Home 53.2%

Odds: 2.06 EV: +9.6%

Draw 24.7%

Odds: 3.60 EV: -6.7%

Away 22.1%

Odds: 3.05 EV: -19.6%

Model lean: Over 2.5 Not tracked as an official bet.

Result: Draw ✘

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 61.4% Odds: 1.57 -3.6%

Over 3.5 39.0% Odds: 2.40 -6.4%

BTTS 59.7% Odds: 1.45 -13.4%

O2.5 OVER → UNDER ✘ BTTS YES → NO ✘

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-1 ✘

2nd 2-1 ✘

3rd 2-0 ✘

4th 1-0 ✘

5th 3-1 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

Aluminij

2.07

Primorje

1.10

Model SuggestionOver 2.5 -3.6% EXCLUDED FROM ROI
ROI tracking: excluded — EV is negative (-3.6%), so the model expects this bet to lose money at the offered odds.

Verdict & Form

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - 🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

66%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: AVERAGE form (1.13) vs P(Home)=53.2%