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NK Celje vs Koper Prediction— Slovenia - 1. SNL

Regular Season - 35 ·Saturday, May 16, 2026, 15:30

NK Celje

PPG 2.44 · HOME

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Koper

PPG 1.44 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.5 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 63.9% vs bookmaker-implied 63.7% — a real, if thin, edge.

+0.3% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.0%0-13.7%0-22.3%0-30.9%0-4+0.4%1 1-06.9%1-18.4%1-25.1%1-32.1%1-4+0.8%2 2-07.9%2-19.6%2-25.8%2-32.4%2-4+0.9%3 3-06.0%3-17.3%3-24.4%3-31.8%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-05.8%4+-17.0%4+-24.3%4+-31.7%4+-4+0.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.6% 50.0% 2.00 +7.2%

Draw 23.4% 32.8% 3.05 -17.2%

Away win 22.9% 26.3% 3.80 -7.8%

Over 2.5 63.9% 63.7% 1.57 +0.3%

Over 3.5 46.2% 43.5% 2.30 +6.3%

BTTS 59.7% 70.4% 1.42 -15.2%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 27 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 74%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 48%

Score Hit 37%

ROI 30.6%

Bet Hit 82%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 55%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)2.3 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob59.7%

H 54% / xG 2.3-1.2 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.4%

#2 2–1 9.6%

#3 2–0 7.9%

#4 3–1 7.3%

#5 3–0 6.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

NK Celje2.3

Koper1.2

COMBINED 3.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.9% · O3.5 PROB 46.2%

Form & verdict PPG

NK CELJE · PPG 2.44

KOPER · PPG 1.44

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - 🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

66%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.44) vs P(Home)=53.6%

Win probability 1X2

NK Celje (H) 53.6%

ODDS 2.00 · IMPLIED 50.0% EV +7.2%

Draw 23.4%

ODDS 3.05 · IMPLIED 32.8% EV -17.2%

Koper (A) 22.9%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -7.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

NK Celje face Koper in Slovenia - 1. SNL on Saturday, May 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives NK Celje a 54% chance, the draw 23% and Koper 23%, so NK Celje are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.3 for NK Celje and 1.2 for Koper (3.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, NK Celje are averaging 2.44 points per game versus 1.44 for Koper. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +7.2%. This match finished 1-2.

NK Celje vs Koper Prediction— Slovenia - 1. SNL

Match Preview & Prediction

More Slovenia - 1. SNL Predictions