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Radomlje vs Mura Prediction— Slovenia - 1. SNL

Regular Season - 36 ·Friday, May 22, 2026, 18:00

Radomlje

PPG 1.44 · HOME

3 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Mura

PPG 0.50 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.9 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 59.1% vs bookmaker-implied 61.7%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.5%0-16.5%0-23.8%0-31.5%0-4+0.6%1 1-09.5%1-111.2%1-26.6%1-32.6%1-4+1.0%2 2-08.2%2-19.6%2-25.6%2-32.2%2-4+0.8%3 3-04.7%3-15.5%3-23.2%3-31.3%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-02.9%4+-13.5%4+-22.0%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 50.6% 28.2% 3.55 +79.6%

Draw 25.3% 27.0% 3.70 -3.8%

Away win 24.1% 53.8% 1.86 -33.1%

Over 2.5 59.1% 61.7% 1.62 -4.3%

Over 3.5 32.8% 39.2% 2.55 -16.4%

BTTS 56.6% 65.4% 1.53 -13.4%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 27 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 74%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 48%

Score Hit 37%

ROI 30.6%

Bet Hit 82%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 47%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-2

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob56.6%

H 51% / xG 1.7-1.2 / O2.5 59% / BTTS 57%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.2%

#2 2–1 9.6%

#3 2–0 8.2%

#4 1–0 9.5%

#5 0–0 5.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Radomlje1.7

Mura1.2

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.1% · O3.5 PROB 32.8%

Form & verdict PPG

RADOMLJE · PPG 1.44

MURA · PPG 0.50

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - 🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

66%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: AVERAGE form (1.44) vs P(Home)=50.6%

Win probability 1X2

Radomlje (H) 50.6%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV +79.6%

Draw 25.3%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -3.8%

Mura (A) 24.1%

ODDS 1.86 · IMPLIED 53.8% EV -33.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Radomlje face Mura in Slovenia - 1. SNL on Friday, May 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Radomlje a 51% chance, the draw 25% and Mura 24%, so Radomlje are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Radomlje and 1.2 for Mura (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 57% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Radomlje are averaging 1.44 points per game versus 0.50 for Mura. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +79.6%. This match finished 3-2.

Radomlje vs Mura Prediction— Slovenia - 1. SNL

Match Preview & Prediction

More Slovenia - 1. SNL Predictions