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Slovenia - 1. SNL logo Slovenia flag Slovenia - 1. SNL Regular Season - 36 Ljudski vrt· Maribor Saturday, May 23, 2026 15:30
Maribor logo Maribor PPG 1.93
3-0 MISS
Aluminij logo Aluminij PPG 1.06
Away· +4.5% ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value
55% confidence

Match Result (1X2)

Home 53.8%
Odds: 1.56 EV: -16.1%
Draw 23.8%
Odds: 4.20 EV: -0.0%
Away 22.4%
Odds: 4.80 EV: +4.5%
Model lean: Over 2.5 Not tracked as an official bet.
Result: Home ✔

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 61.4% Odds: 1.50 -7.9%
Over 3.5 41.1% Odds: 2.20 -9.6%
BTTS 59.7% Odds: 1.53 -8.7%
O2.5 OVER → OVER ✔ BTTS YES → NO ✘

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-1
2nd 2-1
3rd 2-0
4th 3-1
5th 1-0

Expected Goals (xG)

Maribor
2.20
Aluminij
1.06

Model Suggestion

Over 2.5 -7.9% NO VALUE BET
No value bet: model leans Over 2.5, but EV is -7.9% at these odds — not a recommended bet.
Highest raw EV: Away (+4.5%) — probability too low to qualify.

League Track Record

Based on 27 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 74%
O2.5/Under 67%
BTTS/No 48%
Score Hit 37%
ROI 85.1%
Bet Hit 91% (11 bets)

Verdict & Form

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value
55%
HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.93) vs P(Home)=53.8%

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