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Maribor vs Aluminij Prediction— Slovenia - 1. SNL

Regular Season - 36 ·Saturday, May 23, 2026, 15:30

Maribor

PPG 1.93 · HOME

3 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Aluminij

PPG 1.06 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.3 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 61.4% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.8%0-14.1%0-22.1%0-30.8%0-4+0.3%1 1-08.4%1-18.9%1-24.7%1-31.7%1-4+0.6%2 2-09.3%2-19.8%2-25.2%2-31.8%2-4+0.6%3 3-06.8%3-17.2%3-23.8%3-31.4%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-06.3%4+-16.7%4+-23.5%4+-31.2%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.8% 64.1% 1.56 -16.1%

Draw 23.8% 23.8% 4.20 -0.0%

Away win 22.4% 20.8% 4.80 +4.5%

Over 2.5 61.4% 66.7% 1.50 -7.9%

Over 3.5 41.1% 45.5% 2.20 -9.6%

BTTS 59.7% 65.4% 1.53 -8.7%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 27 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 74%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 48%

Score Hit 37%

ROI 30.6%

Bet Hit 82%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 48%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-0

xG (home)2.2 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob59.7%

H 54% / xG 2.2-1.1 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.9%

#2 2–1 9.8%

#3 2–0 9.3%

#4 3–1 7.2%

#5 1–0 8.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Maribor2.2

Aluminij1.1

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.4% · O3.5 PROB 41.1%

Form & verdict PPG

MARIBOR · PPG 1.93

ALUMINIJ · PPG 1.06

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.93) vs P(Home)=53.8%

Win probability 1X2

Maribor (H) 53.8%

ODDS 1.56 · IMPLIED 64.1% EV -16.1%

Draw 23.8%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV -0.0%

Aluminij (A) 22.4%

ODDS 4.80 · IMPLIED 20.8% EV +4.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Maribor face Aluminij in Slovenia - 1. SNL on Saturday, May 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Maribor a 54% chance, the draw 24% and Aluminij 22%, so Maribor are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.2 for Maribor and 1.1 for Aluminij (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Maribor are averaging 1.93 points per game versus 1.06 for Aluminij. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +4.5%. This match finished 3-0.

Maribor vs Aluminij Prediction— Slovenia - 1. SNL

Match Preview & Prediction

More Slovenia - 1. SNL Predictions