Today / Slovenia - 1. SNL / Primorje vs NK Celje

Primorje vs NK Celje Prediction— Slovenia - 1. SNL

Regular Season - 36 ·Friday, May 22, 2026, 18:00

Primorje

PPG 1.19 · HOME

0 – 4

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · AWAY

NK Celje

PPG 2.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away

Model probability 65.1% vs bookmaker-implied 71.4%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.7%0-17.2%0-29.7%0-38.7%0-4+11.2%1 1-02.5%1-16.7%1-29.0%1-38.1%1-4+10.5%2 2-01.2%2-13.1%2-24.2%2-33.8%2-4+4.9%3 3-00.4%3-11.0%3-21.3%3-31.2%3-4+1.5%4+ 4+-00.1%4+-10.3%4+-20.4%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 13.8% 16.1% 6.20 -8.7%

Draw 21.1% 21.3% 4.70 -0.5%

Away win 65.1% 71.4% 1.40 -8.9%

Over 2.5 63.9% 74.1% 1.35 -13.7%

Over 3.5 49.1% 54.1% 1.85 -9.2%

BTTS 54.6% 69.4% 1.44 -21.4%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 27 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 74%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 48%

Score Hit 37%

ROI 30.6%

Bet Hit 82%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 61%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-4

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)2.7 BTTS prob54.6%

A 65% / xG 0.9-2.7 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–2 9.7%

#2 1–2 9.0%

#3 0–3 8.7%

#4 1–3 8.1%

#5 1–1 6.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Primorje0.9

NK Celje2.7

COMBINED 3.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.9% · O3.5 PROB 49.1%

Form & verdict PPG

PRIMORJE · PPG 1.19

NK CELJE · PPG 2.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value

63%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.00) vs Home AVERAGE (1.19)

Win probability 1X2

Primorje (H) 13.8%

ODDS 6.20 · IMPLIED 16.1% EV -8.7%

Draw 21.1%

ODDS 4.70 · IMPLIED 21.3% EV -0.5%

NK Celje (A) 65.1%

ODDS 1.40 · IMPLIED 71.4% EV -8.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Primorje face NK Celje in Slovenia - 1. SNL on Friday, May 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Primorje a 14% chance, the draw 21% and NK Celje 65%, so NK Celje are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for Primorje and 2.7 for NK Celje (3.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-2. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Primorje are averaging 1.19 points per game versus 2.00 for NK Celje. This match finished 0-4.

Primorje vs NK Celje Prediction— Slovenia - 1. SNL

Match Preview & Prediction

More Slovenia - 1. SNL Predictions