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Primorje vs Mura Prediction— Slovenia - 1. SNL

Regular Season - 34 ·Sunday, May 10, 2026, 13:00

Primorje

PPG 1.27 · HOME

0 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Mura

PPG 0.33 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 56.8% vs bookmaker-implied 63.7%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.0%0-17.8%0-25.1%0-32.2%0-4+1.0%1 1-09.1%1-111.8%1-27.7%1-33.3%1-4+1.4%2 2-06.8%2-18.9%2-25.8%2-32.5%2-4+1.1%3 3-03.4%3-14.5%3-22.9%3-31.3%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-01.8%4+-12.4%4+-21.5%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 43.3% 39.1% 2.56 +10.8%

Draw 26.2% 29.9% 3.35 -7.3%

Away win 30.4% 40.0% 2.50 -24.0%

Over 2.5 53.1% 57.1% 1.75 -7.1%

Over 3.5 31.1% 34.5% 2.90 -9.8%

BTTS 56.8% 63.7% 1.57 -10.8%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 27 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 74%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 48%

Score Hit 37%

ROI 30.6%

Bet Hit 82%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 34%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-2

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob56.8%

H 43% / xG 1.5-1.3 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 57%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.8%

#2 2–1 8.9%

#3 0–0 6.0%

#4 1–2 7.7%

#5 1–0 9.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Primorje1.5

Mura1.3

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.1% · O3.5 PROB 31.1%

Form & verdict PPG

PRIMORJE · PPG 1.27

MURA · PPG 0.33

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - 🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

66%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: AVERAGE form (1.27) vs P(Home)=43.3%

Win probability 1X2

Primorje (H) 43.3%

ODDS 2.56 · IMPLIED 39.1% EV +10.8%

Draw 26.2%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV -7.3%

Mura (A) 30.4%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV -24.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Primorje face Mura in Slovenia - 1. SNL on Sunday, May 10, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Primorje a 43% chance, the draw 26% and Mura 30%, so Primorje are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Primorje and 1.3 for Mura (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 57% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Primorje are averaging 1.27 points per game versus 0.33 for Mura. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +10.8%. This match finished 0-2.

Primorje vs Mura Prediction— Slovenia - 1. SNL

Match Preview & Prediction

More Slovenia - 1. SNL Predictions