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Real Madrid B vs Ourense CF Prediction— Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 1

Tuesday, April 14, 2026, 15:00

Real Madrid B

PPG 2.06 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Ourense CF

PPG 0.56 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 66.0% vs bookmaker-implied 58.8% — a clear edge.

+12.2% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.1%0-14.0%0-21.9%0-30.6%0-4+0.2%1 1-09.1%1-18.8%1-24.3%1-31.4%1-4+0.4%2 2-010.2%2-19.8%2-24.7%2-31.5%2-4+0.5%3 3-07.6%3-17.3%3-23.5%3-31.1%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-07.1%4+-16.9%4+-23.3%4+-31.1%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 66.0% 58.8% 1.70 +12.2%

Draw 19.0% 30.8% 3.25 -38.3%

Away win 15.0% 20.8% 4.80 -28.0%

Over 2.5 61.9% 41.7% 2.40 +48.6%

Over 3.5 39.6% 22.2% 4.50 +78.2%

BTTS 55.2% 46.5% 2.15 +18.7%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 60 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 40%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 62%

Score Hit 47%

ROI 1.2%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 52%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)2.2 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob55.2%

H 66% / xG 2.2-1.0 / O2.5 62% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 10.2%

#2 2–1 9.8%

#3 1–0 9.1%

#4 1–1✓ 8.8%

#5 3–0 7.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Real Madrid B2.2

Ourense CF1.0

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.9% · O3.5 PROB 39.6%

Form & verdict PPG

REAL MADRID B · PPG 2.06

OURENSE CF · PPG 0.56

✓ SOLID - Strong home form

95%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in EXCELLENT form (2.06), Away POOR (0.56) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Real Madrid B (H) 66.0%

ODDS 1.70 · IMPLIED 58.8% EV +12.2%

Draw 19.0%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -38.3%

Ourense CF (A) 15.0%

ODDS 4.80 · IMPLIED 20.8% EV -28.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Real Madrid B face Ourense CF in Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on Tuesday, April 14, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Real Madrid B a 66% chance, the draw 19% and Ourense CF 15%, so Real Madrid B are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.2 for Real Madrid B and 1.0 for Ourense CF (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 62% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Real Madrid B are averaging 2.06 points per game versus 0.56 for Ourense CF. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +78.2%. This match finished 1-1.

Real Madrid B vs Ourense CF Prediction— Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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