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Al Jandal vs Al Ula Prediction— Saudi-Arabia - Division 1

Regular Season - 29 ·Tuesday, April 14, 2026, 13:15

Al Jandal

PPG 1.21 · HOME

4 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · AWAY

Al Ula

PPG 1.93 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away

Model probability 72.5% vs bookmaker-implied 78.1%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.5%0-113.8%0-214.7%0-310.3%0-4+9.0%1 1-04.0%1-18.4%1-28.9%1-36.3%1-4+5.5%2 2-01.2%2-12.6%2-22.7%2-31.9%2-4+1.7%3 3-00.2%3-10.5%3-20.6%3-30.4%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-00.0%4+-10.1%4+-20.1%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 9.4% 9.5% 10.50 -1.3%

Draw 18.1% 21.7% 4.60 -16.7%

Away win 72.5% 78.1% 1.28 -7.2%

Over 2.5 51.3% 66.7% 1.50 -23.1%

Over 3.5 29.2% 44.4% 2.25 -34.3%

BTTS 40.2% 57.1% 1.75 -29.6%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 46 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 63%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 50%

ROI 1.1%

Bet Hit 66%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 3 56%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-0

xG (home)0.6 xG (away)2.1 BTTS prob40.2%

A 72% / xG 0.6-2.1 / O2.5 51% / NoBTTS 40%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–2 14.7%

#2 0–1 13.8%

#3 0–3 10.3%

#4 1–2 8.9%

#5 1–1 8.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Al Jandal0.6

Al Ula2.1

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 51.3% · O3.5 PROB 29.2%

Form & verdict PPG

AL JANDAL · PPG 1.21

AL ULA · PPG 1.93

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value

63%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: GOOD form (1.93) vs Home AVERAGE (1.21)

Win probability 1X2

Al Jandal (H) 9.4%

ODDS 10.50 · IMPLIED 9.5% EV -1.3%

Draw 18.1%

ODDS 4.60 · IMPLIED 21.7% EV -16.7%

Al Ula (A) 72.5%

ODDS 1.28 · IMPLIED 78.1% EV -7.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Al Jandal face Al Ula in Saudi-Arabia - Division 1 on Tuesday, April 14, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Al Jandal a 9% chance, the draw 18% and Al Ula 73%, so Al Ula are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.6 for Al Jandal and 2.1 for Al Ula (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-2. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 40% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Al Jandal are averaging 1.21 points per game versus 1.93 for Al Ula. This match finished 4-0.

Al Jandal vs Al Ula Prediction— Saudi-Arabia - Division 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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